Incumbency and Churn-II: India's first-time MPs more than most peers

Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu lead in electing new MPs

India has a relatively higher share of first-time parliamentarians than many of its peers.

The analysis looked at emerging market peers from the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) group, from the Geneva-based Inter-Parliamentary Union. It also considered the top seven economies. Data for some countries like China was unavailable because of factors including differing forms of government. But barring France and South Africa, all others in the sample had lower numbers than India. Nearly 50 per cent of representatives are first-timers in India (chart 1).

The trend is not unique to 2019. The median share of first-time winners in the Indian Parliament has been around 53 per cent, according to an analysis of data from Ashoka University’s Trivedi Centre for Political Data going back to 1967. The peak was 69.7 per cent in 1977. The elections were held in the aftermath of the emergency. It marked the first time that a non-Congress government came to power in the country. The lowest share was in 1999 when only 33.7 per cent of the representatives were first-timers. This marked the first time that a government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party lasted its full term (chart 2).

“The first-time MPs (members of parliament) have a novelty factor, people expect them to do well. To neutralise anti-incumbency sentiments, new faces are given tickets,” said Amitabh Tiwari, political strategist and commentator. 

Anti-incumbency is more visible to people because of the digital age, said Pratik Jain, co-founder and director, Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC). Information on the wrongdoings or failures of incumbents can spread faster than before.

“When the government is changed, the number of first-time MPs is more as seen in the 2014 general elections. If unchanged, the share declines as seen in 2019,” said Tiwari. 

The share of first-time members of parliament (MPs) among those elected was highest in Andhra Pradesh at 76 per cent in 2019. Tamil Nadu was second with 71.8 per cent. The lowest was in Karnataka (35.7 per cent) and Gujarat (38.5 per cent). Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra also had lower than 40 per cent share in first-time MPs among those elected (chart 3).

Many factors are taken into account while giving the ticket. Someone with anti-incumbency will be given a ticket if there is no other better option, and ultimately they win, explained Jain. Jain said that the Lok Sabha elections are fought more on narratives and less on local issues. “It also depends on what the first-time MP has to offer to the people.”

Incumbents are often at a disadvantage in developing countries noted a 2016 study, ‘Anti-Incumbency, Parties, and Legislatures: Theory and Evidence from India’ from University of Rochester author Alexander Lee.

“This paper traces this effect to high levels of centralization within political parties and governments. In political systems dominated by party leaders, legislators face formal and informal constraints on their ability to influence policy, stake positions, and control patronage, which in turn reduce their ability to build up personal votes…. Candidates less affected by centralization—in particular, those not affected by restrictions on free parliamentary voting—have a low or non-existent incumbency disadvantage,” it said.