Indian rupee may struggle on more Fed rate hike bets, US yields surge

By Nimesh Vora

MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to struggle on Friday following a jump in U.S. yields and the dollar index on expectations that more Federal Reserve rate hikes were on the way.

Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 82.08 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.0550 in the previous session.

The USD/INR pair has, over the last few sessions, repeatedly run into support below the 82 handle.

"Having built a decent bottom near the 82-level and in the wake of the dollar's up move, let's see if we can challenge the 82.20 resistance," a forex trader said.

U.S. yields and the dollar index rose overnight on the back of the better-than-expected U.S. gross domestic product (GDP)data and the drop in jobless claims.

The final print for first-quarter GDP growth came in at 2.0%, higher than last month's 1.3% reading and the 1.4% forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

U.S. weekly claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 239,000 from last week's revised 265,000 number.

"The scale of the revision higher (on U.S. GDP) will be taken by some to mean that the Fed still has a lot of work to do," ING Bank said in a note.

Odds of a 25-basis point hike by the Fed next month reached nearly 85% and that for another in September or November rose.

The 2-year U.S. yield climbed to nearly 4.90% overnight, the highest since March. The dollar index reached a two-week high.

The jump in yields did not impact risk appetite. The S&P 500 Index rose and most Asian shares were higher.

The U.S. May core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data is due on Friday, a data point that could potentially impact Fed rate expectations. Economists polled by Reuters expect the core PCE Index to rise 0.3% month-on-month.

KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.18; onshore one-month forward premium at 7.75 paisa ** USD/INR NSE July futures settled on Wednesday at 82.12 ** USD/INR July forward premium at 7 paisa ** Dollar index at 103.30 ** Brent crude futures up 0.2% at $74.5 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield reaches 3.84% ** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures up 0.2% at 19,181 ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $223.4mln worth of Indian shares on Jun. 27

** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $226.4mln worth of Indian bonds on Jun. 27

 

(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)