Merchandise exports estimated to grow at 1.85% in Oct-Dec: Exim Bank

The Export Import Bank of India on Tuesday said it expects India's merchandise exports to grow 1.85 per cent to USD 107.5 billion in the October-December period of 2024.

The non-oil exports will grow 7.39 per cent to USD 91.7 billion, estimates released by the policy bank said.

Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount USD 82.7 billion, which will be a growth of 7.8 per cent over the last year, it said.

"Positive growth in India's exports could be as a result of India's continued strong economic activity backed by sustained momentum in manufacturing and services sector, improving demand prospects in trading partners, supported by expected global monetary easing," it said.

There are risks which make any outcome uncertain, including uncertain prospects in select advanced and emerging economies, geoeconomic fragmentation, the Middle East and West Asia crisis, risk of intensification of protectionist policies, and global supply chain disruptions, it said.

The bank also exuded confidence that the fourth quarter will also see a rise in the overall merchandise exports.

The estimates are arrived at using an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India's exports on a quarterly basis.