Gold seen at $3,600 by year-end as safe-haven demand rises: Ventura

Over the past 20 years, gold has delivered positive annual returns in 14 calendar years, reinforcing its status as a proven store of value and a hedge against inflation

Gold prices are likely to remain elevated through the second half of 2025, driven by macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical risks, and rising investment demand, according to a new outlook from Ventura Securities, a full-service stockbroking and investment platform.

 

The brokerage expects COMEX Gold to touch $3,600 an ounce by December 2025, after hitting a record $3,534.10 on August 7, surpassing the earlier peak of US$3,509.90 set in April this year.

 

A Proven Hedge Against Market Volatility

 

Over the last two decades, gold has delivered positive returns in 14 out of 20 calendar years, reinforcing its status as a store of value. Recent performance has been particularly robust, with gold delivering an average annual return of 23% over the last three years, more than double the 11% average return from the Nifty 50.

 

This resilience has made gold an effective portfolio diversifier, offering negative correlation to equities — cushioning losses during sell-offs while still participating in upswings. 

 Past 3 Years - Average Annual Returns 23% Gold Vs 11% Nifty50

Recent performance underscores its resilience, with averageIndia  annual returns of 23% over the last three years compared to 11% for the Nifty 50.

 

Gold ETFs Witness Record Growth in India

 

The appetite for gold investments in has shifted dramatically toward digital channels such as Gold ETFs and Sovereign Gold Bonds.

 

As of June 30, 2025, India’s gold ETF holdings surged 42% year-on-year to 66.68 tonnes.

 

Assets under management (AUM) jumped 88% to ₹64,777 crore.

 

The number of investor accounts grew 41% to 76.54 lakh.

 

Drivers of this trend include Gen Z investors, fractional ownership models, social media influence, and fintech platforms making gold more accessible.

 

Global Demand Dynamics

 

Gold demand worldwide has remained firm:

 

Global demand in Q2 2025 rose 3% year-on-year to 1,249 tonnes, led by ETF inflows and investment demand.

 

Central bank purchases remain robust, with global reserves now at 36,345 tonnes.

 

India’s central bank gold reserves have climbed to 880 tonnes.

 

These strong fundamentals — combined with steady central bank buying and inflows into ETFs — reinforce Ventura’s bullish price forecast.

 

What It Means for Investors

 

For retail investors, gold’s rally signals the importance of allocating a portion of the portfolio to the precious metal, particularly in times of heightened uncertainty.

 

Diversification: Gold’s negative correlation with equities makes it a strong hedge against stock market volatility.

 

Digital Gold Options: With rising ETF participation, investors can access gold in smaller ticket sizes without storage concerns.

 

Portfolio Allocation: Financial planners typically recommend 5–15% of portfolio allocation to gold, depending on risk appetite.

 

Timing the Market: While gold is at record highs, staggered investments through SIPs in gold ETFs or Sovereign Gold Bonds can reduce entry risk.

 

 “Gold’s strategic role in portfolios has strengthened as investors navigate an era of slower global growth, policy uncertainty, and elevated geopolitical risks. With inflationary pressures, a softening US dollar, and anticipated US Fed rate cuts, we see sustained upside potential in gold prices through the remainder of 2025. Our analysis indicates COMEX Gold could test the $3,600 mark by year-end, supported by strong ETF inflows, steady central bank buying, and robust retail participation in India’s gold investment market," said NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities, Ventura.