Trump-era visa rules trigger 17% drop in fresh foreign student arrivals

International student arrivals in the United States dropped sharply this autumn after new visa restrictions under Trump, even as India held its position as the largest source of foreign students

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International student commencements in the United States fell by 17 per cent this autumn after tighter visa rules and new policies under the Trump administration, according to a new report released on Monday. The drop comes even as India remains the largest source of foreign students in the country.

 

The data, released by the Institute of International Education (IIE), shows commencements slipping to 277,118 students. Undergraduate commencements rose by 5 per cent, but a 15 per cent fall in new graduate students pushed the overall number down. Institutions had expected a decline, though earlier forecasts pointed to a much steeper contraction.

 

Visa and travel concerns dominate

 

Among institutions reporting lower numbers, 96 per cent cited visa application concerns and 68 per cent pointed to travel restrictions. Many institutions described students struggling with appointment delays and extra vetting steps.

 

The Fall 2025 Snapshot from IIE, completed by more than 825 institutions, shows:

• A 1 per cent fall in total international student numbers, including Optional Practical Training (OPT)

• A 2 per cent rise in undergraduate enrolments

• A 12 per cent fall in graduate enrolments

• Continued growth in OPT (+14 per cent)

• Fifty-seven per cent of institutions reporting a drop in new students

 

To manage uncertainty among prospective students, 72 per cent of institutions offered deferrals to spring 2026 and 56 per cent to autumn 2026.

 

Record-high enrolments in 2024/25

 

The broader 2024/25 picture looks very different. The Open Doors Report shows total international student numbers at 1,177,766, up from 1,126,690 the previous year, a 5 per cent year-on-year rise following 7 per cent growth the year before.

 

Growth varied across levels:

• Undergraduate numbers rose by 4 per cent to 357,231

• Graduate numbers fell by 3 per cent to 488,481 after three years of growth

• OPT participants climbed by 21 per cent to 294,253

• Community colleges recorded growth of 8 per cent

 

Much of this rise reflects large cohorts that entered the system before the second Trump administration.

 

India remains the top market

 

India sent 363,019 students in 2024/25, up 10 per cent following a 23 per cent jump the previous year. China followed with 265,919 students, a 4 per cent decline.

 

Twelve countries reached record numbers, including Bangladesh, Canada, Colombia, Ghana, India, Italy, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Spain and Vietnam. Nepal rose by 49 per cent, Ghana by 36.5 per cent, Vietnam by 26 per cent and Pakistan by 20 per cent.

 

The top four markets (India, China, South Korea and Canada) stayed the same, but Vietnam moved into fifth place and Nepal climbed from tenth to sixth. Taiwan slipped from fifth to seventh.

 

Why commencements fell while enrolments rose

 

Enrolments reflect decisions made a year or more earlier, while commencements offer a more immediate view of demand. The fall appears linked to:

• A 14 per cent drop in F-1 visa issuances between January and May 2025

• A three- to four-week pause in visa appointment scheduling during the May–August period

 

New graduate students may also be reacting to President Trump’s disputes with major universities, cuts to research funding, and withdrawals from international research collaborations. These issues have unsettled some prospective graduate students, particularly in fields such as climate science and infectious diseases.

 

Experts warn that demand may be weakening

 

Dr Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA, said in a press statement: “A close read of enrolment figures from last year and this fall shows that the pipeline of global talent in the United States is in a precarious position.

 

“If you exclude those international students who were engaged in post-graduation Optional Practical Training last year – which, at 25 per cent, is the largest share of total enrolment ever – and this fall, there are alarming declines that we ignore at our own peril.”

 

She added: “Other countries are creating effective incentives to capitalise on our mistakes. The United States must adopt more proactive policies to attract and retain the world’s best and brightest and recognise that post-study work opportunities are essential to our standing as the top destination for global talent.”

 

Long-term patterns raise deeper concerns

 

Chris Glass, who leads the Executive Doctor of Education programme at Boston College, urged a longer view. “Ten years that could have created a resilient talent strategy instead produced a system dependent on volatile elements: one country (India), one field (STEM), one degree level (graduate programmes), one policy (OPT).”

 

He told ICEF Monitor that this leaves students and institutions exposed. “Maximum uncertainty for students (OPT to H-1B lottery to decade-long green card backlogs) and maximum vulnerability for institutions (dependence on volatile enrolment streams). A system optimised for neither talent development nor political sustainability: just institutional revenue and temporary labour supply.”

 

Glass noted:

• “Optional Practical Training (OPT) students now comprise 25 per cent of the 1.2 million total international students: up from 16 per cent ten years ago.” 

• “OPT has doubled in 10 years. One in four ‘international students’ are not enrolled in a university. Growth in OPT has masked real enrolment declines for the last decade.”

 

Economic contribution slips

 

International students contributed US$42.9 billion to the US economy in 2024/25 and supported more than 355,000 jobs. This is down 2 per cent from 2023/24, the first fall recorded since the pandemic.

 

Tighter scrutiny under Trump

 

The Trump administration introduced several new measures linked to international students, including proposals to cap foreign student numbers, social-media checks for visa applicants, and extended vetting. Some students reported visa revocations, while others faced delays in seeking new approvals.