India likely to receive below-normal rainfall in July 2026, says IMD

The weather office forecasts July rainfall at less than 94 per cent of the long period average and advises farmers to adopt water conservation measures amid a weak monsoon

India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during July, the country’s wettest month of the monsoon season, with monthly rainfall expected to be less than 94 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), according to the latest monthly outlook issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday. 

July usually receives the highest rainfall of the southwest monsoon season, with a long-period average (LPA) of 280.4 mm based on data from 1971-2020. The outlook comes after one of the driest Junes on record, raising concerns over kharif sowing, reservoir replenishment, and water availability in several parts of the country. 

According to the IMD, below-normal rainfall is expected across most parts of the country during July, although some areas of northwest and northeast India, east-central India, and the eastern peninsular region are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. 

July typically contributes the largest share of seasonal monsoon rainfall and is critical for the sowing of rain-fed crops such as paddy, pulses, and oilseeds. 

The forecast follows an exceptionally weak June, during which India received just 99.5 mm of rainfall, about 40 per cent below normal, making it the fifth driest June since records began in 1901. Rainfall over east and northeast India was the lowest ever recorded for the month since 1901, at 197.5 mm, while central India registered its seventh driest June on record, with 84.4 mm of rainfall. 

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the southwest monsoon, which has advanced about 10 days behind schedule over parts of central and northwest India, is expected to reach Delhi-NCR and most of the remaining parts of Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh over the next two to three days. 

Mohapatra also said the first week of July will see heavy rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, in several parts of the country, especially central and peninsular India, due to the development of a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal. 

“There will be good rainfall activity due to the low-pressure system over the first seven days, which may extend to 10 days. There will be copious amounts of rainfall, which will be helpful for paddy-like crops. The first half of the month will be helpful for crops, but the second half of the month will see below-normal rainfall,” Mohapatra added. 

Explaining the weak June performance, the IMD said rainfall was affected by the absence of any low-pressure systems during the month, an unfavourable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), above-normal typhoon activity over the western Pacific that suppressed low-pressure formation over the Indian Ocean, and evolving El Niño conditions. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions were not sufficient to offset the adverse impact of El Niño. 

“El Niño activity is likely to continue till early spring next year and will intensify with time. Most models are saying that the negative impact of El Niño could be countered by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the second half of the monsoon season, but it is too soon to confirm whether it will compensate fully. If it does happen, it will be towards the end of August and then September,” Mohapatra said. 

The IMD has also forecast above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across most parts of the country during July. Mohapatra said below-normal rainfall could lead to water stress in some regions and advised farmers to adopt water conservation measures, including shifting to less water-intensive crops where feasible.