Monsoon set to arrive in Kerala within the next 2-3 days, says IMD

Centre forms crop weather watch and crisis management groups, circulates contingency plan to states as IMD forecasts below-normal monsoon and rainfall risks

The southwest monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala in the next two to three days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its forecast on Monday. Meanwhile, the Centre stepped up efforts to counter the ill effects of low rainfall by forming crop weather watch and crisis management groups, and by circulating a crisis management plan to state governments.

 

Typically, the monsoon season begins around June 1. The IMD had earlier said that rains would arrive by May 26.

 

The forecast had a model error of plus or minus four days. However, so far, the rains have not touched the shores of Kerala. In its inter-ministerial briefing, the government said a crop weather watch group has been constituted and meets every Monday to study rainfall patterns, sowing progress, reservoir status, input availability, pest incidence and price trends.

 

In addition, a separate crisis management group comprising relief commissioners and state disaster management authorities has also been set up. Apart from that, the agriculture ministry is preparing district contingency plans in collaboration with ICAR and holding regular videoconference interactions with state officials on monsoon preparedness.

 

Meanwhile, the IMD said conditions are favourable for the southwest monsoon to advance into some more parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, and parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu during the next two to three days. The advance can also take place in some more parts of the southwest, west-central, east-central and northeast Bay of Bengal, and the remaining parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal during the period, it predicted.

 

The IMD had earlier predicted the onset of the monsoon over Kerala on May 26. However, the arrival of the monsoon was delayed, and the department stated on May 29 that it could happen the following week.

 

In its revised forecast last week, the department said the season's rainfall would be below normal. It noted that India is expected to receive 90 per cent of its long-period average (LPA) rainfall this year. LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years. The LPA of seasonal rainfall over India as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm.

 

If a monsoon season sees less than 90 per cent of the LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as "deficient".