Monsoon in July is cumulatively expected to be 'normal', says IMD

The southwest monsoon in the critical month of July is cumulatively expected to be “normal”, with rainfall at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.

There, however, could be patches of distress in agriculturally crucial regions of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, and Meghalaya. This may have a bearing on the sowing and growth of paddy, which is majorly grown in some of these states. Paddy sowing is already 26 per cent down year-on-year (as on June 30).

July and August are the two most crucial months in the four-month southwest monsoon season as they get more than 60 per cent of the seasonal average rainfall. Any drop in the final rice output could be compensated by the adequate stocks in the central pool. Also, some agriculturally crucial states, such as Punjab, have much of their farmland under irrigation.

The IMD in its forecast said most parts of central India and adjoining south peninsular and east India, and some areas of the Northeast and the Northwest are likely to witness normal-to-above-normal rainfall in July. Maharashtra, along with the core monsoon zone of central India, is expected to have good rains in July, according to the IMD; this may help boost oilseeds and pulses sowing.

Met prediction

• 96-104% of long-period average (LPA) the IMD’s prediction for rainfall in July
• 280.4 mm is LPA for July
• Northwest, Northeast, and South Peninsular India may witness below-normal rainfall

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a virtual press conference that the formation of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal after July 4 would keep the monsoon active over central India; on the west coast, normal monsoon activity over the Arabian Sea would help get rainfall.

About the El Niño phenomenon, the IMD said, based on its calculation, it did not appear in June, but would likely rear its head in July. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on the other hand, is expected to become positive in the coming months; it is now in a neutral state. A positive IOD has a strong bearing on the Indian monsoon.

About June, the met department said, the entire month witnessed a 10 per cent deficiency in rainfall, against a 47 per cent deficiency until the middle of the month.

“Historically, in most El Niño years, June rainfall is normal. But this year, it has been below normal. Also, in 16 of the past 25 years when June rainfall was below normal, July rainfall was normal,” Mohapatra added.