El Niño threat: Which crops face the biggest risk from weak monsoon?

As the southwest monsoon enters a much-needed active phase after a prolonged period of lull, all focus will be on the crops, which could be most severely impacted and which could be least impacted due to El Niño-induced low rains this year.

 

Common understanding says that any crop which is highly reliant on water—paddy and maize—should be the most impacted due to low rains. On the other hand, crops that require less water, such as pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals or millets, are the ones that should be least impacted.

 

However, experts said that it is not always the case. Much also depends on when and where the rains fall in a low monsoon year. If the rains are good in paddy growing in the eastern and southern parts of the country, the impact on paddy could be less. If rains are less in the central and western parts of the country, where irrigation coverage is lower than the national average, the impact on oilseeds and pulses could be more.

 

But, in a low monsoon year, production of pulses does not tend to fall much as they are the final alternative crop for farmers in the event of low rains since they require less water.

 

A recent analysis by QuantEco Research said that the most vulnerable crops in case of monsoon deficiency are pulses, coarse cereal, oilseeds, and cotton with Maharashtra (43.3 per cent irrigated), Rajasthan (46.8 per cent irrigated), Karnataka (43.3 per cent irrigated), Jharkhand (17.2 per cent irrigated) and Chhattisgarh (34.3 per cent irrigated) being the most vulnerable as they have the lowest share of irrigation.

 

When most vulnerable crops are mapped against the most vulnerable states, the report highlights that crops such as jowar, tur, soybean, and cotton remain most vulnerable to low rains in Maharashtra, followed by jowar, bajra and soybean in Rajasthan, jowar, maize and tur in Karnataka, and maize and groundnut in Madhya Pradesh.

 

“Historically, agri GVA and monsoon deviation show a strong correlation of nearly 60 per cent. As such, for every 1 per cent shortfall in monsoon, around 40 bps of agri GVA growth is sacrificed. Having said that, the growth in agri allied sectors, share of which has steadily risen from ~30 per cent in 1990 to 40 per cent in FY25, could possibly cushion the downside. Consequently, overall agri GVA in FY27 could be marginally positive, in the range of 0-1 per cent,” the report said.

 

The latest crop sowing data shows that the over 40 per cent shortfall in June rainfall is impacting the acreages.

 

Till June 25, kharif crops have been sown in around 18.72 million hectares of land this year, which is almost 22 per cent lower than the area covered during the same period last year. Acreage for pulses is down 30 per cent and 53 per cent for oilseeds till June 25 compared to same period last year.

 

Additionally, acreages of all major kharif crops are less than last year so far, which could serious impact on yields if the rains don’t improve soon.

 

Meanwhile, the government has prepared an elaborate contingency plan to deal with any eventuality.

 

The agriculture ministry has mapped 315 districts across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha as likely to receive below-normal rainfall. Of these, 111 have less than 25 per cent irrigation coverage have been classified as ‘most vulnerable’.

 

Of the balance, 76 have been categorised as ‘medium-vulnerable’ (25-50 per cent irrigation coverage) and 128 as ‘least vulnerable’ (more than 50 per cent irrigation coverage).

 

A majority of the 111 ‘highly vulnerable’ districts are in the states of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh with the former accounting for almost 22 of them.

 

Special drives would be taken up in these 111 'highly vulnerable' districts to ensure full crop insurance coverage, easier loan availability, adequate seeds for replanting, maximum utilisation of available water resources and also fertiliser availability.

 

The ministry has drawn up state-wise contingency plans recommending alternative crops suited to deficient rainfall conditions. States have been directed to promote pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals that require less water, and to encourage short-duration and climate-resilient seed varieties rather than dependence on a single crop.

 

States have been asked to use water judiciously and to clean ponds, streams, farm ponds and check dams under the Viksit Bharat Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission Gramin (VB-GRAM G) programme to preserve water for irrigation contingencies.

 

The ministry has called for extensive enrolment under crop insurance schemes and Kisan Credit Cards in the identified states.

 

The 731 Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) have been asked to step up farmer outreach, with timely advisories to be disseminated via SMS, WhatsApp, call centres, and other media.

 

The ministry has also set up an El Nino Monitoring Cell and a Crop Weather Watch Group for real-time tracking and advisory.