India's coffee exports likely to decline over 10% on lower production

India's coffee exports are expected to decline more than 10 per cent in 2025 due to lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks from last season's crop, even as beans fetch record high prices, industry officials told Reuters on Wednesday.

The South Asian country, a major tea producer, is also the world's seventh-largest coffee grower. The country mainly produces robusta beans used to make instant coffee, but also grows the more expensive arabica variety.

Lower exports from India could further tighten global supplies, already squeezed by weaker output from top producer Brazil, which would support benchmark futures that hit a record high this week.

"Although prices are higher, the smaller crop will result in lower export volumes," Chengappa Pradhan, researcher at Volcafe, the coffee trading arm of ED&F Man, told Reuters.

Exports in 2025 could fall by more than 10 per cent from the prior year's record 295,402 metric tonnes, he said.

Output is expected to fall this year as higher summer temperatures and water scarcity impacted the conversion of coffee flowers into cherries, while later heavy rains lead to fruit dropping, said Marvin Rodrigues, a coffee grower.

"This year, harvesting was delayed due to rains. Early trends suggest lower yields," said Rodrigues.

The country harvested 374,200 tons of coffee, including 261,200 tons of robusta and 113,000 tons of arabica in the 2023/24 marketing year ended in September 2024, the state-run Coffee Board estimated.

"We have not yet finalised the number for the current season's production. We are receiving reports of lower yields. Our estimate will be finalised after conducting a detailed survey," said an official with Coffee Board.

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The rally in coffee prices in 2024 and European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) regulation led to higher Indian exports in 2024, but that brought down inventories to a negligible level, said Ramesh Rajah, president of the Coffee Exporters' Association of India.

"Lower carry forward stocks would bring down available surplus for exports," Rajah said.

European countries such as Italy, Germany and Belgium are among key buyers of Indian coffee.

The initial deadline for the EUDR, which aims to prevent the import of commodities linked to deforestation, was December 2024, which has since been delayed to December 2025 for large operators and traders.

European buyers bought more coffee than required in 2024 anticipating the EUDR, but they are now slowing down purchases because of record prices, Rajah said.

Demand for Indian arabica is a bit subdued, but there is good demand for Indian robusta, which is fetching premium over the benchmark London futures, Rajah said.

Indian robusta was being offered at a premium of $250 per ton over London futures, dealers said.

"Farmers have witnessed prices rally month after month, and many are holding back their crops in anticipation of further gains," said Pradhan of Volcafe.

 

(Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Additional reporting by Maytaal Angel in London; Editing by Varun H K)