Rice output expected to grow 5.9% this kharif season, shows data

Pulses production projected to be the lowest in nine years

Rice production in the recently concluded kharif season is expected to be around 120 million tonnes (mt), which is a 5.9 per cent increase from the same season last year, on the back of a surplus monsoon and improved acreage, according to data from the first advanced estimate for 2024-25 (July-June) released on Tuesday.

 

A strong rice output should help boost exports and may prevent the government from reinstating any of the trade curbs it lifted recently.

 

India's retail inflation surged to a nine-month high of 5.49 per cent in September, up from 3.65 per cent in August, largely due to rising food prices, particularly fruits, vegetables, cereals, and pulses, data from the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed.

 

Food inflation, based on the Combined Price Index, increased to 9.24 per cent in September from 5.66 per cent in August and 6.62 per cent in the same period last year. 

 

According to data, production of maize (another prominent kharif cereal) is also expected to rise 10.3 per cent from last season to around 24.54 mt this time. This should help cool its prices and ensure adequate availability for user industries, including grain-based ethanol manufacturers.

 

However, pulses production for the 2024-25 kharif season is projected to be the lowest since 2015-16, at 6.95 mt, largely due to a drop in urad output. Urad production for the kharif season is projected to be around 1.20 million tonnes, down from 1.60 mt last kharif. This could raise concerns, as urad is one of the main pulses consumed in India. However, with the Centre extending duty-free urad imports until March 2025, supplies may remain stable.

 

Overall, the data shows that foodgrains production in this kharif season, according to the first advanced estimate, is projected to reach an all-time high of 164.7 mt, which is 5.7 per cent more than the previous season.

 

Among other crops, oilseeds production is projected to increase by almost 6.5 per cent to 25.74 mt, driven by strong groundnut and soybean yields.

 

Groundnut production this season is projected at around 10.36 mt, 19.6 per cent higher than the same period last year. Soybean output is estimated at 13.36 mt, up from 13.06 mt last year. A good domestic oilseeds output should help reduce dependency on imported edible oils.

 

For other crops, the estimates project sugarcane production at 439.93 mt, around 3 per cent less than the same period last year. Lower sugarcane production may lead to a continuation of the current export ban.

 

Cotton production is estimated to be almost 8 per cent lower, at 29.92 million bales (1 bale = 170 kilograms).

 

For the first time in this kharif season, the Centre deployed the Digital Crop Survey (DCS) in collaboration with states to prepare area estimates. This survey, expected to replace the manual ‘Girdawari’ system, is an important step towards robust crop area estimates, according to an official statement.

 

DCS-based Crop Area Estimation has been conducted in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Odisha, with 100 per cent of districts in these states covered under DCS in Kharif 2024. “This has led to a substantial increase in the area under rice, particularly in Uttar Pradesh,” the statement said.

 

The southwest monsoon was surplus by nearly 8 per cent this year, leading to a surge in kharif crop sowing. Region-wise, central India saw the highest surplus, with 19 per cent above-average rainfall, followed by southern peninsular India at 14 per cent. The monsoon was deficient in northern and northeastern parts of the country, with a 14 per cent shortfall.