Tesla investors brace for potential back-to-back vehicle sales decline

By Craig Trudell

Tesla Inc. may be headed for another vehicle sales decline this quarter after surprising investors with a drop in the first three months of the year, according to Robert W. Baird analysts.
 

The carmaker faces a tough year-ago comparison in the current period, Ben Kallo, who rates Tesla’s stock the equivalent of a buy, said in a note published Tuesday. He estimates the company will deliver 444,510 vehicles in the second quarter, 4.6% fewer than a year ago.

“There is no denying that the demand environment has deteriorated,” Kallo wrote. “Musk has been vocal on recent conference calls regarding the difficulty of increasing sales in the higher interest rate environment, and we expect this to remain a headwind” through at least the first half of the year.

Wall Street is increasingly raising alarm about Tesla’s near-term sales outlook, with Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan deeming the EV maker a “growth company with no growth” last month. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has said the manufacturer is between waves of expansion.

Musk’s announcement that he’ll reveal a robotaxi on Aug. 8 may perk up Tesla shares, Kallo said, citing past precedent. The analyst no longer regards the stock a “bearish” pick, citing the unveiling and other factors. He slapped the shares with that designation on Jan. 31, after a Delaware court voided Musk’s pay award.

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Tesla’s stock slipped as much as 0.8% before the start of regular trading Tuesday, after jumping 4.9% on Monday. The shares have fallen 30% this year.