Foreign tourist arrivals on the rise but shy of 2019 peak as season begins

Winter travel will test India's return to the global travel map

India’s peak tourist season from October through December will determine whether the country can regain its pre-pandemic level of foreign tourist arrivals — a marker of whether it has truly returned to the global tourism map. 

The domestic tourism graph has risen, but foreign visitors remain an elusive cohort. Ministry of Tourism data shows foreign tourist arrivals peaked at 10.93 million in 2019 before the pandemic halted the momentum. Arrivals rebounded to 6.44 million in 2022, climbed to 9.52 million in 2023, and reached 9.95 million in 2024. As of August 2025, they stood at 5.6 million, below the 6.3 million recorded in the same period last year. 

This year brought fresh headwinds. The terror attack in Pahalgam early in 2025 unsettled travellers and escalated tensions between India and Pakistan, heightening geopolitical uncertainty. A prolonged monsoon added climate-related disruptions, with floods and landslides dampening hopes of revival during the July–September quarter. 

Even so, tourism and hospitality bodies say the industry is poised for a stronger October–December performance, despite travel advisories issued by the US and UK — both major source markets — after the blast in Delhi earlier this month. 

“India’s inbound tourism is showing a better rebound this season. Most of our member operators report 10-15 per cent higher arrivals than last year, driven by renewed interest from North America, Europe, West Asia, and Southeast Asia,” said Ravi Gosain, president of the Indian Association of Tour Operators (IATO). 

 Foreign tourist arrivals between September and December rose 0.4 per cent in 2023 versus 2024 but remained 11 per cent below the same period in 2019. “We expect inbound numbers in 2025 to come close to pre-pandemic levels — if not fully match them — by early 2026. What is encouraging is the quality of travel: longer stays, higher per-capita spending, and stronger demand for experiential and sustainable tourism products,” Gosain added. 

Preliminary industry estimates suggest 2025 could close with 10-10.5 million foreign visitors, placing India within sight of the 2019 benchmark. A major boost is coming from the restoration of China–India air connectivity after a long suspension. Tour operators say early enquiries from Chinese travellers — across business, the Buddhist circuit, leisure, and MICE (meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions) segments — are already visible, reviving one of India’s fastest-growing source markets. Direct routes are expected to strengthen trade, cultural exchanges, and group travel in the months ahead. The broader revival is being driven by improved air connectivity, new infrastructure, the return of charter operations, and focused promotion in emerging markets such as West Asia, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. The MICE segment has also expanded notably. 

“As India gains relevance and importance as the world’s fifth-largest economy and progresses towards the third, there’s more business interest coming in. And many are still travelling after the G20,” said Puneet Chhatwal, managing director and chief executive officer of Indian Hotels Company (IHCL), during the firm’s 2024–25 results call in March. 

“Foreign companies that already had business established, like Siemens, Bosch, or Bayer Group, are all growing in size, and more people from their corporate offices are coming in. Global capability centres are being built,” he added, pointing to the rising contribution of the MICE sector. 

The resumption of direct flights between China and India is also expected to considerably contribute to this momentum. Yet gaps remain. 

According to former G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant, India urgently needs a major global branding and marketing campaign. He posted on X in August that “there has been no concerted branding or marketing campaign for Indian tourism in the past decade”. The lack of overseas promotion, coupled with complex visa processes, has hindered foreign tourist arrival recovery in recent years. The allocation for overseas promotion and publicity was slashed to ~3 crore in the 2025–26 Budget, a tenth of the previous year’s allocation. 

To support India’s global branding, IHCL committed ~25 crore over three years beginning in 2024 to help promote the country abroad. The company hosted India Day at travel festivals around the world last year. “We’ll keep doing these activities,” Chhatwal told analysts in March. 

Trade sources say the quality of inbound travel has also improved, as visitors now opt for longer stays, spend more, and seek more experiential products. 

“Demand is rising for wellness retreats, heritage circuits, adventure tourism, and rural or community-based travel. Operators also report growing interest beyond traditional routes such as the Golden Triangle, with travellers exploring the Northeast, South India, and Himalayan states,” IATO said.