Housing sales in top 7 Indian cities likely to dip by 0-3% in FY26: Icra

Icra projects housing sales in top seven cities to fall up to 3 per cent in FY26, even as new launches recover and listed developers consolidate market share

Residential sales in India’s top seven cities are projected to decline by up to 3 per cent year-on-year in the financial year 2026 (FY26) to 620–640 million square feet (msf), amid moderation in sales velocity, according to ratings agency Icra.

 

In FY25, sales volumes stood at 643 msf, down 8 per cent year-on-year (YoY), due to a sharp contraction in new launches and moderated sales in the affordable and mid-income segments. This came after the sector registered a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26 per cent in area sales during FY22–FY24.

 

“Having seen a strong upcycle, the sector entered an equilibrium phase in FY25, which is expected to continue into FY26,” Icra noted.

 

Affordability remains under pressure, with average selling prices (ASPs) rising over 10 per cent annually between FY23 and FY25. ASPs are expected to rise a further 6–8 per cent in FY26, driven by higher luxury sales, limited inventory, and increased pricing power among large listed developers. The years-to-sell (YTS) ratio is estimated to remain healthy at 1.0–1.1x by March 2026.

 

On supply, new launches are expected to grow 4–7 per cent in FY26 to 630–650 msf, recovering from a 14 per cent decline last year. The increase will be supported by spillover projects and comfortable unsold inventory.

 

“The calibrated launches by developers helped maintain healthy inventory levels despite moderation in sales,” said Anupama Reddy, Co-group Head and Vice President – Corporate Ratings, Icra.

 

Industry consolidation is accelerating, with the share of listed developers in total sales value rising to 20 per cent in FY25 from 13.1 per cent in FY20. These players, Reddy said, are expected to continue outperforming the broader market, backed by lower leverage, strong collections, and robust cash flows.

 

Debt levels may inch up in FY26 to support construction and expansion, but leverage is expected to remain comfortable, supported by steady receivables and progress in ongoing projects, Icra added.