Tech startup hiring likely to remain subdued in 2026: Xpheno data

As calendar year 2026 kicks off, the employment landscape for job seekers in the startup ecosystem may be less exuberant than hoped. Data from specialist staffing firm Xpheno showed that in 2026, the net job creation is projected to be between 80,000 and 100,000. 

 

The numbers were nearly equal or just marginally above the net job creation of 80,000 in the last calendar year. In total, tech startups collectively created a net of 410,000 jobs in the last five calendar years.

 

“The year 2025 has ended on a stagnant low-average, and no sharp changes are expected in enterprise spends and performance of other tech cohorts for the greater part of 2026,” said Anil Ethanur, cofounder of Xpheno. 

 

He added, “The overall hiring sentiment for tech startups is hence expected to be on similar levels of 2025, and movements, if any, would be marginally upward.” 

 

Echoing Ethanur’s views, Shantanu Rooj, founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of TeamLease Edtech, said that while hiring sentiment seems steadier than in 2025, it will still remain selective. 

 

“Headcount expansion is more likely in revenue-linked and product-critical teams than in broad-based hiring,” he noted. 

 

A key factor reshaping hiring decisions is the growing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and a sharper focus on skills. 

 

Prashant Tandon, cofounder and CEO of the Tata-owned health-tech startup Tata 1mg, said AI is impacting the way companies hire. 

 

“It’ll be a little different because we are doing a lot of work on AI that is going to bring a lot of automation and efficiency at one end. Secondly, we are investing in R&D (research and development) for future AI work, so the quality of talent will be upgraded. So, it (hiring) will be robust, but it will not be in operations and other areas. Skilled workforce has a very good requirement in a business like ours, which is where we will continue to hire.” 

 

Harishanker Kannan, CEO and cofounder of a software-as-a-service firm, Scalefusion, believed that in 2026, hiring will be about accuracy and quality over quantity. 

 

“The key change is in where they place their bets -- in roles related to product, security, and AI that impact revenue. Degrees have become obsolete because they do not forecast accomplishments,” said Kannan.

As startups build leaner teams focused on productivity, demand is expected to concentrate in areas such as GenAI, data engineering, cybersecurity, and cloud. 

 

Kapil Joshi, CEO of IT staffing at Quess Corp, noted, “AI and machine learning specialists, including generative AI engineers, prompt engineers, and LLM (large language model) workflow designers, will see the fastest growth, reflecting the operationalisation of AI across fintech, BFSI (banking, financial services and insurance), healthcare, and product-led startups.”

 

Joshi added that data engineering and analytics professionals will remain critical, supporting AI platforms and enterprise decision-making. Cloud and DevOps roles, including cloud architects and site reliability engineering (SREs), are expected to grow sharply due to continued cloud migration and hybrid infrastructure adoption. Cybersecurity specialists will also remain in high demand, driven by escalating compliance and risk management requirements. The firm noted that startups and deep-tech firms will account for a 6-7 per cent share of AI and data-related hiring. 

 

On the business side, job platform Apna said that sales and business development roles are expected to grow by around 10-12 per cent, remaining the largest contributor to overall hiring activity. 

 

“Customer experience and support roles are likely to see growth of 9-11 per cent, delivery, logistics, and field operations roles are expected to expand by approximately 8-10 per cent driven by ongoing last-mile expansion beyond metros, and finance support and operations roles are likely to grow more modestly, in the range of 7-9 per cent, as lending and insurance activity scales with tighter risk,” Kartik Narayan, CEO of Jobs Marketplace at the firm, said.

 

Sector-wise hiring outlook

 

On Apna’s platform, BFSI and fintech are expected to see hiring growth in the range of 10-12 per cent. Logistics, supply chain, and last-mile operations are likely to grow by around 8-10 per cent. Ecommerce and quick commerce are expected to see more measured growth of 6-8 per cent. AI-first software and productivity startups are likely to grow at a higher rate, in the range of 12-15 per cent. 

 

In addition to sectors that emerged as top job creators in 2025, according to Xpheno, a few other sectors that hold potential to create jobs in 2026 are retail, renewables and energy, health and wellness and travel and logistics.