Record-setting 2025: Gold, S&P 500 on a tear; Nifty sits on the sidelines

47 highs for gold, 41 for S&P 500, none for Nifty this calendar year

The benchmark Nifty 50 index has yet to scale a new peak in calendar year 2025, in stark contrast to the 65 record highs it hit in 2024 — one of the highest in a single year. The last time the index failed to notch up a record was in 2016. Before that, it went without fresh highs in 2010, 2011 and 2012 over the past 15 years.

 

Gold, meanwhile, has already set 47 new records this year — the second-highest on record after 57 highs in 1979. So far in 2025, the Nifty and Sensex have risen about 6.5 per cent, while gold and silver have surged 58 per cent and 80 per cent, respectively. In June, the Nifty came within 2.2 per cent of a new peak at 25,669, compared to its all-time closing high of 26,216 on September 26, 2024.

 

Globally, the S&P 500 index has logged 41 new highs in 2025 after 62 last year. While the Nifty’s gains have been in the mid-single digits, the US benchmark is up 15 per cent. Analysts say equities could lag, while commodities may extend their rally amid worsening US–China trade tensions.

 

The performance gap between equities and gold reflects heightened uncertainty stemming from US President Donald Trump’s tariff measures and persistent selling by foreign portfolio investors. Analysts warn that the environment calls for caution.

 

“Global investors are reshaping portfolios amid trade frictions, shifting US policies and uneven growth trends,” said Anil Rego, cofounder and fund manager at Right Horizons. “This has led to a selective approach favouring markets with stable earnings and domestic demand visibility, like India, while reducing exposure to high-valuation or export-dependent themes.” 

 

While not a “risk-off” setting in the usual sense, Rego noted that “liquidity remains ample, rate cycles are turning supportive, and corporate balance sheets are healthier than in previous slowdowns”.

 

Muted Nifty gains are linked to US–India tariff worries, liquidity pressure from primary markets, promoter selling and weak corporate earnings, according to Chokkalingam G, founder and chief investment officer at Equinomics Research. Domestic investor buying has been insufficient to lift the market to new highs, he added.

 

A new peak before the end of 2025 is possible, albeit through a gradual climb rather than a sharp rally, Rego said, citing supportive domestic conditions, controlled inflation, cumulative Reserve Bank of India rate cuts, goods and services tax (GST) rationalisation, infrastructure spending and strong 2025–26 earnings momentum.

 

Even so, valuation challenges and global risks — from elevated US tariffs to slowing developed-market growth — could keep foreign flows volatile and limit near-term upside. Bernstein analysts retain a year-end Nifty target of 26,500, which would mark a new record but is only 5.2 per cent above current levels. They see conviction in Indian equities dented by sluggish macros, earnings downgrades and geopolitical shifts.

 

Chokkalingam expects a limited upside of 1–3 per cent until December, weighed down by the tariff war fallout and the initial public offering boom. “Stronger corporate earnings from October–December quarterly results, coupled with successful monsoons and GST benefits, are likely to support markets,” he said. Valuations, he added, could turn attractive from January onwards, backed by improved earnings, GST rate cuts and lower oil prices.