Tata Motors PV gains 9% thus far in February; what's driving auto stock?

The Tata group company's domestic passenger vehicles business continues to see strong growth post the GST cut and recent launches receiving good customer response.

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicle (PV) share price today

 

Share price of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (PV) moved higher by 1 per cent to ₹382 on the BSE in Tuesday’s intra-day trade. The stock price of the Tata Group PV company has recovered 2 per cent from its intra-day low of ₹374 today.

 

Thus far in the month of February, Tata Motors PV has outperformed the market by surging 9 per cent, as against 1.5 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex. The stock rallied 14 per cent from its previous month low of ₹335.35 touched on January 21, 2026.

 

The stock is set to report its sharpest monthly gain in the past four months, since it turned ex-demerger on October 14, 2025. It had hit a high of ₹421.45 on October 14, 2025. 

 

Tata Motors PV management commentary post Q3 results

 

The overall global demand continues to remain challenging. The management said the company will step up brand-led actions at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) to drive up demand for its products and execute enterprise missions programmes aimed at enhancing savings and cash flows. 

 

Domestic business continues to witness robust demand, and the company will accelerate growth through exciting launches and innovations. Overall, the management expects a sharp improvement in the January to March 2026 quarter (Q4), led by normalization of JLR volumes.

 

JLR remains resilient and well placed to address the economic, geopolitical and policy challenges the industry faces. Investment spend is expected to remain at £18bn over the five-year period from FY24. In light of the challenges faced, FY26 guidance is reaffirmed, with EBIT margin in the range of 0 per cent to 2 per cent and free cash outflow of £2.2bn to £2.5bn.

 

Looking ahead, the management remains confident about the PV industry’s growth in light of positive demand momentum seen post GST 2.0. With the company’s product launches & interventions commencing deliveries in Q4 and a strong slate of upcoming launches, Tata Motors PV is well poised to accelerate its growth trajectory in FY27, the management said.

 

Brokerages view on Tata Motors PV

 

JLR is faced with a perfect storm. Its profitability and FCF challenges appear to be bigger than what analysts at BNP Paribas India had feared. JLR is struggling with demand and profitability headwinds and does not have any new major product interventions to offset it. 

 

The brokerage firm sees the next cycle of new nameplate additions starting by the FY27-end, when RR Velar's successor, smaller Defender and new Jaguar models are likely to be launched. Limited visibility on FCF and demand recovery could raise stock price volatility, in our view, analysts said. “We offer the potential stock price range in our valuation metrics. Improving domestic business is the silver lining,” BNP Paribas India said. Currently, the stock is trading above target price of ₹360 per share.

 

Key upside risks to brokerage firm’s SoTP-based target price include strong customer acceptance of new JLR model launches; prolonged mix and pricing benefits, resulting in strong margins and FCF at JLR; successful model launch with China JV leading to volume revival in China;  strong response for the revamped Jaguar portfolio;  company becoming successful in passing on the luxury tax in China and tariff in the US, without any demand impact, analysts said.

 

“Q3FY26 was a weak quarter for Tata Motors PV owing to a cyber incident-led production shutdown and lower dispatches at JLR. Nevertheless, JLR’s EBITDA was ahead of our estimate. Domestic PV margin also improved sequentially, in line with our estimate,” analysts at ICICI Securities said in the Q3 result update.

 

While variable marketing expenses (VME) spends will likely remain elevated in the near term owing to a challenging demand environment, the brokerage firm believes the worst is largely behind for JLR. Production ramp-up, low channel inventory and multiple new launches should support near-to-medium growth. Its domestic PV business continues to see strong growth post the GST cut and recent launches receiving good customer response. Analysts upgraded the stock from Hold, to ADD, with a SoTP-based revised target price of ₹410 (earlier ₹385).   ===============================================  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.