Time for accommodation

A string of setbacks is manifesting in various ways for the BJP, most starkly in state politics

Supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can be forgiven for asking themselves dismally when there will be good news. The party managed to form the government at the Centre with the help of allies after sliding to 240 seats from 303 in the previous Lok Sabha elections.  After the retirement of nominated members, with 90 seats of the 245, it no longer has a majority of its own in the Rajya Sabha. It managed to win only two of the 13 Assembly byelections this month.

This string of setbacks is manifesting itself in different ways but it is at its starkest in state politics. In the 18 states and Union Territories where the BJP has its government (albeit shored up by alliance partners in some) out of the 36, the government is showing aggression and assertion in defence. Equally, the Congress and other INDIA partners are now more combative than before. Political and policy contestation has suddenly become more vigorous.

Take Rajasthan. The BJP has 58 per cent of the seats after the Assembly elections in 2023 and hence its majority is hardly in doubt: 115 of the 200. The Congress has just 69, and has lost power. The Opposition we saw in the Assembly from December 2023 to June 2024 was largely somnolent, with the Congress preoccupied with internal stresses and strains. But then, in the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP could win only 14 seats of the 25 in the state, with the Congress getting eight and three seats going to other parties.

So, the Budget Session of the Assembly, which started on July 4, is seeing unexpected assertion by the Congress. Every day, Opposition members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) question, disrupt, and decry government policy. Last week, Congress MLAs alleged that the Public Works Department was not consulting them in building roads in constituencies where they had won: It was still going by directions of the BJP MLAs who had lost the election. The BJP is hitting back by reverting to its core programme: The government is drafting a Bill to prevent religious conversion with stringent punishments, putting aside another one passed in 2008 by the Vasundhara Raje government but it never got presidential assent and was not brought back when Ms Raje was chief minister for a second term from 2013 to 2018.

In Odisha, after 24 years of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) being in power, the BJP formed the government for the first time in the state in June this year. In the 147-member Assembly, while the BJP got an absolute majority with 78 seats, the BJD managed only 51. The BJD’s defeat was made more humiliating by the BJP winning 20 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats; the lone remaining seat went to the Congress.

For the longest time, the BJD has considered the Congress its primary enemy in the state. But now, not only has the BJD withdrawn support to the BJP in the Rajya Sabha, it has also deployed its MLAs to “shadow” ministers in the BJP government, many of whom are first-time MLAs and have no experience in government or Assembly. Although the BJD has made no overtures to the INDIA alliance, that too could change. The BJP’s policy plank is not clear: Is it going to continue the popular welfare schemes of the past government? Is it going to trash Naveen Patnaik and his nominees? In a state highly sensitive to Odia identity, is the government going to harp on the “double engine”, leading the BJD to charge that Odisha is in danger of becoming just one more state for the BJP with little regard for its identity?

In Uttar Pradesh, buoyed by the Lok Sabha results, the Samajwadi Party and Congress have begun talks to contest the 10 Assembly byelections, the elections to which could be announced anyday. In the past, differences dogged the two parties in Assembly elections.

In Punjab, the BJP has just two MLAs in the Assembly. But despite losing seats it held in the Lok Sabha, its vote share was the highest ever. In recognition of this fact, it has made Ravneet Bittu (who lost the Lok Sabha poll) a Union minister. How the BJP consolidates its presence in the state will be interesting to watch.

In the coming days, economic reform, especially relating to items on the Concurrent List of the Constitution, will need the support of state governments. In the current scenario, as political positions harden, so will resistance. Achieving a consensus is going to demand negotiation and flexibility.