What Arvind Kejriwal's arrest would mean

SC's deadline to conclude the case ends in April. By then, the general election will be on. If the allegations against AAP leaders are established, and they're jailed by then, it will benefit the BJP

Delhi Chief Minister and National Convenor of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) Arvind Kejriwal may have skipped quizzing by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in the Delhi excise policy case for now, but he will likely be summoned again. He demanded to know whether he was being summoned as a witness or a suspect, as Chief Minister or party chief. The ED might choose to clarify this and determine his complicity, if any, after the grilling.

There is speculation in political circles that evidence with ED may be clinching, with accused turned approvers perhaps spilling the beans. Should a money trail lead to the party, Kejriwal could face charges under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) as the party chief. The Supreme Court had already asked the ED on October 5 why AAP was not made an accused despite being an alleged beneficiary in the Delhi Excise policy "scam".

Justice Sanjiv Khanna had clarified, "We asked the question not to implicate anybody. It was purely a legal question which arose from the fact that if 'A' is beneficiary of the proceeds of crime, then why is it not made an accused while 'B' and 'C' are made accused." The Supreme Court seemingly accepted ED's argument that the increase in commission to the liquor distributors from 5 per cent to 12 per cent led to a windfall gain of Rs 338 crore to them. The implication was that the Delhi government was complicit in ensuring these exceptional profits. Since deputy chief minister of Delhi Manish Sisodia and AAP's Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh are already in jail, ED summons to Kejriwal were to be expected.

The Supreme Court's deadline of six months to conclude the case ends in April. By then, the general election will be on. If the allegations against the AAP leaders are established, and they are jailed by then, this will benefit the BJP.

A guilty verdict will also ostensibly blunt the Opposition's accusation that the current dispensation is using its agencies to control its political adversaries. The Congress and AAP seem to be special targets, perhaps to expel their leaders from the 2024 political contest. The bid to put Congress leader Rahul Gandhi behind bars in a defamation case led to his disqualification as a Lok Sabha MP and eviction from government accommodation. While circumstances, international and domestic, and the courts came to his rescue, Arvind Kejriwal may not be so lucky.

As a diminutive version of Prime Minister Modi, perhaps Kejriwal poses a special threat. The pious religiosity he affects is more people-friendly than the militant Hindutva associated with the BJP, while his economic sops have successfully reinforced his populist image as a saviour of the poor. Prime Minister Modi's needling of Opposition leaders is matched by Kejriwal's political barbs against the BJP. In particular, the insults aimed at Prime Minister Modi cut to the bone. Recall how his telling of the tale of the "Chauthi pass Raja", or the semi-educated King in the Delhi Legislative Assembly, went viral.

His appeal amongst the urban middle class, traders and the urban poor living on the margins of megapolises is unquestionable. AAP's Delhi model of freebies to the poor has gained credibility, and as a result, Kejriwal's influence extends to several north Indian states. These factors make him a significant political threat to the BJP.

If he remains with the INDIA grouping of Opposition parties, then AAP is likely to come to seat-sharing arrangements with the Congress in Delhi. The two parties that compete for the same set of voters undercutting each other, would no longer do so. In such a scenario, the BJP, which holds all the seven parliamentary seats as of now, is unlikely to repeat its score in 2024. Besides Delhi, the Congress-AAP sharing of seats may impact the BJP's prospects in Haryana, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab. Were the Congress-AAP alliance to win even half of the 36 Lok Sabha seats in these states, the BJP's electoral arithmetic for 2024 would go awry. Arvind Kejriwal's association with the Opposition's alliance is, therefore, seen as a major hurdle by the BJP to winning the 2024 general election.

Even if he is in jail while under trial, AAP would be in serious difficulty, as the party is essentially a one-man band. Its second-rung leadership – Sisodia and Sanjay Singh – is already behind bars. There is speculation that there would be no legal bar to prevent Kejriwal from running the government, even from jail while he is under trial. He does not directly hold any portfolio, but no policy decision goes through without his nod. The Delhi cabinet could, therefore, still take orders from him as earlier. However, should he be convicted and awarded more than a two-year imprisonment, Delhi would need a new chief minister. There is speculation in some quarters that, in that case, Delhi may get a woman chief minister in Atishi Marlena.

However, the party is unlikely to stay as strong without Kejriwal leading it to elections in the near future. The choice before it will be either doing the bidding of the ruling party or be forced out of the game. Moreover, his imprisonment might prompt the other AAP leaders to cooperate with the BJP to ensure the party's survival. They may even abandon the INDIA grouping.

Kejriwal's situation is not unique. All politicians in India inevitably are vulnerable to charges of corruption. The ruling BJP has chosen its targets among them strategically. Potential political allies for 2024 have been left out while the hounds have been let loose on implacable opponents like Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal or even Mahua Moitra. They have been reined in against Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, Asaduddin Owaisi, Naveen Patnaik or even Nitish Kumar, whose current support for the Opposition grouping, INDIA may be no more than opportunistic. Some will fall in line, while others, like Laloo Yadav, Tejasvi Yadav or parties like the Trinamool Congress, will probably not. The Delhi excise case and the alleged misdemeanours of the Delhi government have, therefore, come in handy to target AAP and its leadership.