Why it'll be a good idea for India to try connecting with Kamala Harris

On Thursday this week, Kamala Harris will be formally anointed as the nominee of the Democratic Party for the presidential elections in November. The Democratic Party Convention underway in Chicago will mark the culmination of a remarkably successful campaign by Ms Harris, jettisoning her image as a bland and pedestrian political figure and a mostly invisible Vice-President under Joe Biden, the incumbent President.

Her swift and uncontested endorsement as Democratic Party nominee once Mr Biden bowed to pressure within his party to withdraw from the race, was unexpected. The flood of cash that began to flow into her campaign was almost spectacular. For weeks, the insiders in the Biden administration had insisted that the President had to seek a second term precisely because the default choice in his place would be Kamala Harris who was not “made of presidential material” and could not stop Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, from an easy victory in the elections. And now she is leading Mr Trump in the opinion polls. The political momentum is on her side. She has generated a feel-good sentiment across the country and barring any serious mis-steps in the six weeks left for the campaign, she could well be America’s first woman President and a mixed-race one to boot. That she has come so close to the prize is testimony to the remarkable American capacity for political renewal against what at times appear to be overwhelming odds. For much of the world Kamala Harris becoming US President will bring a huge sense of relief. So, along with a large segment of the American voting public, many leaders across geographies and the ideological spectrum will be rooting for her.

While Ms Harris has a lead in the polls and is widening the gap in her favour, there are issues that could trip her up in the days to come. On the domestic front, the rising cost of living is a negative, though the latest numbers suggest an improvement. Immigration is another issue on which Mr Trump scores over Ms Harris with his hard-line and openly racist approaches. On the external front, if the Biden administration is able to broker a ceasefire in Gaza, that will give Ms Harris a political boost among the pro-Palestinian, liberal and younger sections of the voting public. The continuation of the war with more killings and human rights abuses in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, would probably persuade traditionally Democratic voters to stay away from the polls, though this will not add to the votes cast for Mr Trump. Ms Harris has been more vocal than President Biden in calling for an immediate ceasefire and stopping the killing. She could raise her rhetoric on this issue but cannot be seen as anti-Israel. That would hand over the Jewish vote to Mr Trump.

The Ukraine war may be less of a factor, though there is general war fatigue in the US, as in much of Europe. The latest and surprise incursion by Ukrainian forces into Russian territory for the first time, if sustained, may revive popular support for assistance to Ukraine. Conversely, if Russia launches a successful counter-attack in the weeks leading up to the elections, driving out Ukrainian forces and occupying more territory in its ongoing operations in eastern Ukraine, the picture may change. For now, Ukraine can be part of the feel-good sentiment.

In India, one might have expected that the remarkable rise of a US political leader who is as much Indian-American as she is Black American would generate much greater interest and a sense of affinity than has been on display so far. One does hear the expressions of pride, celebrating the success of those with Indian roots abroad. There are few stories on her family connections in India or her mother’s journey to the US in search of opportunity and a new life. The story of her own political journey in the US should have evoked greater interest but that is not the case. This is unusual.

India will need to deal with whichever administration takes office in January next year — a Republican one headed by Mr Trump or a Democratic one headed by Ms Harris. Speaking to friends in the US, one sometimes hears that there is a perception among Democrats that the current Bharatiya Janata Party  government would prefer a Trump presidency rather than a Democratic administration led by Ms Harris. If this is the case, then an effort should be made to dispel any such notion. It would be helpful if during his forthcoming visit to the US for the UN Summit for the Future in New York next month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks an opportunity to connect with Ms Harris.

India-US relations have achieved unprecedented range and depth over the past decade. While there may be differences over specific issues, such as on Bangladesh, the overall strategic convergence between the two countries remains intact. Neither wants the Indo-Pacific to be dominated by China. In its current stage of development, India’s access to cutting-edge US technology, both in the civilian and defence sectors, is critical. The US remains a key market for India, particularly in the services segment, and American capital flows have become a significant factor in India’s growth story. Over the years, India has enjoyed bi-partisan support in the US and this asset must be kept intact and nurtured through across the board political and civil society engagement. There will be, as has been the case in the past, critical comments about India’s domestic politics and social issues. Our reactions should be sober and measured.

There is one issue that will require careful handling by both sides. This relates to the allegations of assassinations and attempted assassinations of Khalistani elements in Canada and the US by persons suspected of being associated with Indian security agencies. The handling of the issue is now complicated by its becoming part of the US judicial process. It should not be allowed to overshadow a partnership that has become a geopolitical anchor in an uncertain and unpredictable world.

The writer is a former foreign secretary