Eyeless in Gaza

Little visibility on the end of the conflict

Last week marked six months since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, and the prospect of peace appears weak. There are reports of a new round of truce negotiations in Cairo but the outcome is doubtful. It is hard to see an endgame when the Israeli government openly speaks of withdrawing troops from southern Gaza to regroup ahead of an assault on Hamas in Rafah, the border point that is choked with refugees. Meanwhile, Hamas has indicated that it wants to link the fate of the 129 hostages of the 253 it seized in a killing spree on October 6, 2023, to the permanent withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The Israeli Defense Forces claims that 34 of the remaining hostages are dead. This intransigence on both sides has caused the death of 600 Israeli troops and over 30,000 Palestinians in Gaza, mostly women and children. Israel’s indiscriminate attacks on civilians, including hospitals, in Gaza are being increasingly viewed as genocide globally rather than a legitimate security operation against Hamas.

It is unclear what Hamas can gain in this prolonged asymmetric war in which the Israeli military might is supported by the US, the world’s most powerful arsenal. But there is much benefit for Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister, who secured a parliamentary majority in the fifth election in four years. The alliance between his Likud Party and ultra-orthodox and far-right parties has given Israel one of its most right-wing governments in its history. But his popularity was dented before the Hamas attack after his party rammed through a Bill in Parliament that removed judicial oversight (of the Supreme Court and lower courts) on government decisions. Protests against this law surged steadily till Hamas’ assault. Israel’s retaliatory war, therefore, has ensured his continuation in office. Equally, the regional escalation of the war into Lebanon and Syria as a proxy battle against Hamas’ major sponsor, Iran, enables him to acquire validity to attract continuing military support, now increasingly under question domestically and globally, from the US. Israel’s open admission of responsibility for the attack on Iran’s embassy in Damascus, Syria, can be viewed as a symptom of Tel Aviv’s war aims. Now, prolonging the war has become an urgent imperative for Mr Netanyahu since protests against his government’s inability to, first, prevent that Hamas attack last October and, second, bring home the hostages, 12 of whom, tragically, were returned in body bags, escalated over the weekend.

India’s approach to the war has sought to balance its heavy dependence on Israel for security technology with its historic, principled position on the two-state solution for Palestinians. Initially abstaining from a UN resolution for an immediate humanitarian truce, India recovered a month later by voting in favour of a resolution condemning Israeli settlements in the occupied territories. Last week, however, it abstained from a resolution holding Israel responsible for possible war crimes in Gaza. All in all, including the well-meaning decision to send Indian workers to Israel, India has been carefully balancing its diplomatic approach, including with the Arab nations. This could become more difficult if the war prolongs, which seems to be the overwhelming possibility.