Response and restraint: An escalation between India, Pak must be avoided

In the early hours of Wednesday, Indian armed forces conducted an operation, named Operation Sindoor, targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Jammu & Kashmir and Pakistan. Nine sites that were used to plan and direct terrorist attacks against India were targeted. As a statement by the Ministry of Defence noted, the action by Indian armed forces was focused, measured, and non-escalatory in nature. It was not targeted against any military facility in Pakistan. The limited objective was to dismantle the terror infrastructure, which could be used to send terrorists across the border. This was not an attack on Pakistani civilians. The action was a response to the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, where 26 persons, including one Nepali national, were killed. Despite evidence of cross-border involvement in this particular incident and those in the past, the Pakistani establishment failed to take adequate action. Consequently, India has had to use its right to respond.

 

Given the circumstances and the nature of the Pahalgam terrorist attack, it must be noted that India and the Indian armed forces have shown remarkable restraint. In their action, they have shown prudence in carefully selecting targets and responsibly executing the operation. India has also done well to take the global community into confidence. Pakistan has long been known for harbouring terrorists to carry out attacks in India and elsewhere. It is a haven for terrorists. It is no surprise that Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks in the United States (US), was found and killed by US forces in Pakistan. Nonetheless, even after having hit the terror targets, India will have to continue to fight the war against terrorism. It needs to focus on at least three areas in the near to medium term. First, it has been reported that Pakistani forces have resorted to cross-border shelling, resulting in civilian casualties. While Indian forces would respond appropriately, the focus should be on bringing down tensions on the border to avoid escalation.

 

Second, with the latest strike, India has raised the bar in terms of responding to attacks originating from across the border. This should increase the deterrence level for the Pakistani establishment, which has supported terrorism for decades. However, given the state of Pakistan and its establishment, it should not be assumed that it will willingly give up supporting terrorism. It is important to understand the context in which the Pahalgam attack was carried out. The Pakistani economy is in a bad shape and is dependent on the International Monetary Fund and others for survival. There is internal trouble in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is also facing a hostile Taliban regime on the western side. Meanwhile, the most popular political leader capable of challenging the military and the incumbent civilian government has been kept in jail. Thus, the recent speech by the Pakistan army chief and the subsequent attack in Pahalgam, resulting in tensions with India, are an attempt to garner domestic support and legitimacy. India, therefore, will need to remain vigilant. It must address security and intelligence gaps, if any, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir.

 

Third, India will need to continue to diplomatically expose Pakistan’s support for terror. Over the years, in fact, it has succeeded in isolating Pakistan diplomatically. Pakistan has very few friends in the world. India must continue to work with the global community to further increase the cost of supporting terrorism for Pakistan. With its large and fast-growing economy, India is in a strong position to push its interests.