Think long-term: Rafale-M deal good, but IAF's bigger needs remain

It has been reported that the Cabinet Committee on Security has cleared the purchase of 26 Rafale jets, of the “Marine” version, for use on carriers of the Indian Navy. This will be a government-to-government purchase at a cost of $6.6 billion, which is approximately ₹64,000 crore. The Indian Air Force (IAF) had previously bought 34 Rafales in flyaway condition for ₹59,000 crore, in an agreement signed in 2016. These are in service, half of them deployed in a westerly facing direction in Ambala and the other half in Hasimara, facing the Northeast. The new Rafale-M jets are supposed to be delivered in three to five years, and reportedly will be integrated with the Indian military’s preferred missiles — presumably including the various indigenous anti-ship missiles being developed in India, including by the Defence Research & Development Organisation and Adani Defence & Aerospace.

This is a welcome step, given that the INS Vikrant had problems integrating the Russian-made Mig-29Ks, which had been used on the INS Vikramaditya alongside a Russian aircraft flight complex. The naval variant of the indigenous light combat aircraft also successfully landed on the INS Vikrant in 2013 but the military has been noticeably unwilling to commit to that airplane as its primary platform. The Rafale-M, made by France’s Dassault Aviation, basically had only one competitor when it came to the INS Vikrant’s airborne complement: The United States’ F/A-18 Super Hornets, made first by McDonnell-Douglas, which has since merged with Boeing. Presumably the French company was able to make a better offer to the Indian Navy because of its pre-existing relationship with the IAF. 

The question now is how to fill the increasingly urgent needs of the IAF. It is worth recalling that the desired strength of the IAF is 42 squadrons, though it now has 31 squadrons. This number might decline sharply in the coming years as older aircraft age out. Any hope that the LCA, or Tejas, might fill in the gap has been belied. This may be because Hindustan Aeronautics has been slower and less efficient than it had promised to be in order to bring the LCAs up to spec. Or it may be that the military is simply unwilling to make do with anything less than the best, even if locally manufactured. 

Either way, the decision on how to fill this gap has been postponed too long. It is no longer even a question of deterring the Chinese; the question is how soon it will take for the Pakistan Air Force to acquire China’s J-35, and how many of those it will be able to afford. The IAF is overstretched, given the complex logistics of maintaining multiple different jets from various producers. A holistic overview of its requirements over the next decade and a rational allocation of budgetary resources for its needs are vital. Some might argue that the presence of 60 Rafales in India would give Dassault Aviation an edge in filling any further gaps. The government is reportedly fast-tracking the tendering process for 114 new multirole fighter aircraft. The process must also look at other possibilities — from the Swedish Gripen to the Eurofighter Typhoon to various American and Russian alternatives. Several of them may be better long-term bets in terms of cost, indigenisation, and reliability. But the process must be expedited to ensure that the IAF is better prepared.