Elections in 41 countries in 2024: Impact on world politics, economy

It is not only India that is set to witness its biggest electoral battle in 2024, but over 40 per cent of the world. Archis Mohan explains why these polls will have ramifications for global politics

Not only in India but billions across the world will cast their vote in 2024. Electorates in at least 41 countries, representing 42 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product ($44.2 trillion) and 41 per cent of its population (3.2 billion), will have the chance to elect new leaders.

Elections are set to be conducted with varying degrees of fairness in several neighbouring countries of India, including Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. The US, the UK, Taiwan, and South Africa are headed for crucial elections, as will Russia and the 27-member European Union.

In India, if successful in the April-May elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be the first party since 1962, and Narendra Modi the first incumbent prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru, to secure a third consecutive majority in the Lok Sabha.

The lead-up to the election, in which an estimated 950 million people could participate, is set to be dynamic. Key events include the consecration ceremony of the new Ram temple at Ayodhya, in the presence of the PM, on January 22 and Rahul Gandhi’s two-month-long Bharat Nyaya Yatra, commencing in Imphal on January 14.

 Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh, will hold Assembly polls concurrently with the Lok Sabha elections. In Odisha, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik is on the brink of making history. If re-elected, he will become the country’s longest-serving chief minister later this year. Haryana, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra will also have Assembly polls by the end of the year.

The Centre has committed to hold elections in Jammu & Kashmir this year and restore its statehood. The region, which last held an Assembly election in 2014, has since been bifurcated, with Ladakh becoming a separate Union Territory.

 Union Home Minister Amit Shah has stated that the country’s decennial Census, last conducted in 2011 and delayed since 2021, will take place in 2024 following the Lok Sabha polls. This year will also see the implementation of three new criminal laws -- the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, Nagrika Suraksha Sanhit, and the Bharatiya Sakshya Act -- which replace three colonial-era laws.

Asia

In India’s neighbourhood, Bangladesh is set to hold elections on January 7, with the Awami League’s Sheikh Hasina likely to secure a fourth consecutive term. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition party in Bangladesh, is boycotting the election in protest against political repression. 

Pakistan’s elections are scheduled for February 8. Former PM Imran Khan is in jail, while another former PM, Nawaz Sharif, is back in the country after four years in exile.

Sri Lanka is also scheduled for its presidential elections, the first after its economic crisis two years ago and subsequent protests that had its then president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, flee the country and subsequently quit. Ranil Wickremesinghe succeeded him and is likely to contest on the plank that he has tried to lift his country out of the crisis by unveiling economic reforms and securing a loan from the International Monetary Fund. The election schedule is yet to be announced.

While Bhutan will conclude its parliamentary elections this month, the Maldivian Majlis is slated for elections this year.

In the rest of Asia, elections in Indonesia are scheduled for February 14, with more than 200 million eligible to vote. Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan will try to replace two-term President Joko Widodo. His son, 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming, is a vice-presidential candidate, thanks to a contentious court ruling that allowed his candidature despite a legal age threshold of 40.

 South Koreans will vote in legislative elections in April, which will have ramifications for President Yoon Suk Yeol’s presidency. Since Yoon took office in 2022, the Opposition Democratic Party, which has a majority in the National Assembly, has blocked legislation. His party, the People People Power, has to win enough seats to tilt the balance in the National Assembly for the remainder of his five-year term.

 Taiwan, confronting the prospect of Chinese aggression, is headed for a crucial election on January 13. Presidential candidates of the principal parties in the fray reject the prospect of Chinese rule but with some differences. Beijing, however, would wish to see the back of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

 Other Asian countries that will see elections are Iran, where many could boycott the polls, Cambodia, and Mongolia.

  

Europe

In Europe, Ukraine was scheduled to hold an election at the end of March, which is unlikely as the country is under martial law and elections are suspended. However, Ukraine’s friends could suggest President Volodymyr Zelenskyy conduct one to show the world that democracy was still alive.

 The United Kingdom, Belgium, Croatia, Belarus, Austria, and Finland are slated for elections, as will the voters in 27 members of the European Union. The election to the European Parliament is from June 6 to 9. Nationalist and anti-migrant parties have done well recently in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia and could see improved popularity in some of these countries.

In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will likely seek a fresh mandate for his government. His party, the Conservatives, at the time led by Boris Johnson, won in the pre-Covid post-Brexit environment in 2019 and will face a reinvigorated Labour Party seeking to return to power after 13 years with people complaining of inflation and high interest rates.

The Russian Federation will have its presidential election on March 15-17, the results of which are a foregone conclusion as President Vladimir Putin has no serious rivals who could have harnessed the anger against Russia’s meandering Ukraine war. Alexey Navalny, his most prominent rival, is in jail. 

 Africa

 South Africa, Algeria, Ghana, South Sudan, Mozambique, Chad, Senegal, Rwanda, Tunisia, Togo, Mauritania, Botswana, Namibia, and Mauritius are scheduled for elections.
 

 In South Africa, for the first time in 30 years, that is, after apartheid ended, the African National Conference (ANC) could lose its majority, as newer entrants, such as the Democratic Alliance, could eat into its votes. The ANC could still form a coalition government with Leftist parties, but voters are likely to punish it for years of corruption, unemployment, crime, and long power cuts.

 

The Americas

Besides the United States, Mexico, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Panama, and Uruguay will hold elections. Mexico's June presidential election will have two women compete for the top job. But the most important will be the US presidential election.

There are several contenders for the Republican nomination, but November 5, 2024, could likely be another face-off between incumbent Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump, despite recent setbacks for him in the court. A Trump win, given his record during his previous stint, will have ramifications for global trade and security architecture.

Change of guard on the cards
 

• At least 41 countries are set to pick their top leaders or ruling party this year
   
• These countries represent 42% of the world’s GDP ($44.2 trn)   
   
• 41% per cent of world population (3.2 billion) they represent
   

Asia
 

• India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, South Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Iran will go to polls
   
• The election in Taiwan, a country of 23.5 million people, would determine its relations with China
   

Europe
 

• Russia, UK, Belgium, Croatia, Belarus, Austria, Portugal, Finland and European Parliament will see elections
   
• With his principal rival in jail, Russian presidential elections shall ensure Vladimir Putin’s term extends until 2030
   

Africa
 

• Elections will be held in South Africa, Algeria, Ghana, South Sudan, Mozambique, Chad, Senegal, Rwanda, Tunisia, Togo, Mauritania, Botswana, Namibia, and Mauritius
   
• In South Africa, the ANC could lose majority for the first time since apartheid ended in 1994
   

The Americas
 

• The US, Mexico, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Panama, and Uruguay will witness mega electoral battles.
   
• The American presidential election could be a rerun between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and its results will have ramifications for the current world order