Bihar election battle: Seat-sharing dilemma for NDA and Opposition

A mere 12,768 votes of the total 41.43 million polled separated the winner and the loser in the three-phase Bihar Assembly polls held in 2020. The election was held when waves of migrant workers were forced to return back to the state in the wake Covid-19 pandemic.  

 

The Janata Dal (United) JD(U)-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 125 of 243 seats with a combined vote share of 37.26 per cent, defeating the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led ‘Mahagathbandhan’ that secured 110 seats with 37.23 per cent vote share.

 

However, what skipped the headlines was that the BJP had emerged as the second biggest party in the state and with the best strike rate. It won 74 of the 110 seats that it contested. Contributing to the BJP’s better tally was Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) that dented JD(U)’s performance in as many as 32 seats. While remaining within the NDA, LJP contested on 135 seats, fielding its candidates against the JD (U), but not against the BJP. JD(U) recorded its worst performance in two decades, winning only 43 seats. Nitish still became the chief minister, but a much weaker one. 

 

There is now fresh speculation that in the upcoming Assembly polls, likely to be in October, Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) could throw up a surprise. However, sources said, Paswan’s manoeuvres could be a tactic to secure a bigger number of seats for his party as part of the NDA.

 

Despite its impressive strike rate five years back, the BJP is hamstrung . Although JD(U) is seen to be on the decline, BJP is not keen to contest more seats, according to sources. Barring the 2015 polls, when the JD(U) was in the rival camp, the BJP has never contested as many as 130-140 seats. It lacks a robust organisational network in some regions of the state. Hence, it is likely that Paswan’s party could get a sizable number of seats to contest.

 

Similar tensions exist in the RJD-led camp. Congress had a poor outing five years back, winning only 19 of the 70 seats it contested. Sources said, it was not keen to contest seats where it is weak organisationally , and could settle for 50-odd seats. Among the Left parties, the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) is keen to contest at least 30 seats, emboldened by its performance in 2020,  when it won 12 of the 19 seats it contested as an RJD ally.