Is Pawar's exit from NCP a precursor to new power equations in Maharashtra?

All eyes are on 5 May when a committee of party leaders set up to address the fallout from Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) President Sharad Pawar’s surprise announcement that he had resigned from the presidentship of the NCP but not from politics, will hold its first meeting. However, a trickle of resignations from posts in the party had already begun with Thane MLA Jitendra Awhad, resigning from his post as national general secretary today. The entire Thane NCP unit stepped down with him. Awhad is known for taking a position against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and has been both satirical and critical of the party’s biggest leader, Devendra Fadnavis.

He also declared that Supriya Sule, Pawar’s daughter, would be the best person to take over the reins of the NCP, thus putting himself firmly in the Sule camp and at a distance from Ajit Pawar, the other NCP leader and Sharad Pawar’s nephew who has ambitions of leading the party.

“We told him [Sharad Pawar] that workers are quite upset. We also told him that party workers want him to remain the party president along with having a working president. He said he will rethink his decision and requires 2-3 days…" Ajit Pawar had told local media hours after Pawar resigned. Today Pawar went about his daily business ad gave no indication he would be reconsidering his decision.

However, sources in the NCP selectively highlighted excerpts from his updated autobiography in Marathi, especially portions relating to a deal between the NCP and the BJP soon after the assembly elections of 2019. This was the first official admission by Pawar that talks had indeed taken place between the BJP and NCO to form a government together, a proposal, Pawar claims he rejected, though Ajit Pawar did take matters to the point where the BJP along with NCP staked claim to form a government.

"I met Modi and told him very clearly that there could be no political truck between us (BJP and NCP). But while I was saying this, it has to be noted that there was a section of leaders in the party who wanted ties with the BJP," Pawar said in his book. 

Some NCP leaders say Pawar’s decision to step down from the presidentship of the party is a precursor to new power equations in Maharashtra.

The BJP made no comment about the ongoing saga in the NCP, saying only it was an internal matter of the party. But top BJP leaders are watching the situation closely, especially the possible outcome of a court case on the disqualification of a breakaway faction of the Shiv Sena, which is keeping a BJP-led coalition afloat in Maharashtra.

The 5 May meeting will reveal who has the balance of advantage in the event Sharad Pawar cannot be ‘persuaded’ to continue. In addition to Sule, even as Ajit Pawar’s chances of succeeding his uncle were being discussed in the party, party treasurer Praful Patel today clarified that he was ‘not in the running’ for party presidentship. Patel has good relations with the BJP, though he is not a Maratha in a party that is strongly supported by the caste.

“If there is a ‘vacancy’ at the top, Ajit Pawar will be the man to bid for it” said a former Congress Chief Minister. He said this matter could be decided in the week after polling in the Karnataka elections on 10 May.

Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan who was speaking at a public meeting in Belgaum today focussed on the fact that the NCP had fielded 40 candidates against the Congress all over Karnataka. This can only damage Congress apart from being against coalition dharma, given that NCP is still part of an anti-BJP coalition. “I don’t think NCP will continue to be with us for much longer” he said.

For the record, the Congress has maintained that the NCP’s current crisis is an internal matter of the party.