Rupee to hold above $83.50; awaits RBI policy, US non-farm payroll report

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to open broadly unchanged on Friday, holding near to a key level and awaiting the Reserve Bank of India's policy decision and the US non-farm payroll report.

Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will mostly be flat from 83.4725 in the previous session.

"Now with the election excitement out of the way, it should be a quiet session," a spot currency trader at a bank said.

There is a "low probability that we inch past 83.50 (on dollar/rupee) and on the downside, the dip will not be at most 3-4 paise."

On the RBI's policy, he said it was "difficult to see any form of market-moving stuff".

The RBI is widely expected to make no changes to the policy rate or the stance amid robust growth and inflation higher than its target level. The focus will be on inflation and liquidity commentary.

"On the growth front, domestic demand remains resilient, reflected in high-frequency growth indicators, while external demand suggests nascent signs of revival," Morgan Stanley said in a note.

"We expect the RBI to continue with its measures to support liquidity amid frictional tightening."

The rupee's Asian peers were mostly higher and the dollar index marginally lower before the release of the monthly US jobs report. The data is crucial in the backdrop of uncertainty on the Federal Reserve interest rate outlook.

Heading into the data, interest rate futures are pricing two rate cuts this year, with the first in September.

Two major central banks have already cut rates before the Fed - the European Central Bank cut rates on Thursday, a day after the Bank of Canada.

One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.54; onshore one-month forward premium at 6.5 paise. Dollar index down at 104.08. Brent crude futures up 0.1 per cent at $79.9 per barrel. Ten-year US note yield at 4.3 per cent. As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $576.1 milion worth of Indian shares on June. 5. NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $72.1 million worth of Indian bonds on June 5.