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The head of the European Central Bank said inflation has become more unpredictable due to shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine and that policymakers need to take the possibility of such extreme scenarios into account and communicate them to the public as well. The world ahead is more uncertain, and that uncertainty is likely to make inflation more volatile, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said Monday in a speech opening the central bank's annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. It's pretty basic but that's the reality. One reason, she said, was that increasingly regular supply disruptions were leading companies to change their prices more frequently, a habit that goes beyond the recent burst of inflation in the US and Europe and reflects a structural shift in how firms operate under conditions of permanently higher uncertainty. The bank's assessment of the economy needs to rely on taking extreme possible scenarios into account as
Inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro fell to 1.9% in May from 2.2% in April, clearing the way for more rate cuts from the European Central Bank to support growth in the face of US President Donald Trump's tariff offensive. Lower energy prices helped bring consumer prices in May to below the ECB's 2% target for the first time since September. Increasing signs that inflation is back under control after a painful outbreak in 2021-23 leaves room for the ECB to turn its attention to worries about the impact of a slew of new import taxes on EU goods in the US that threaten to slow Europe's export-oriented economy. Reductions in the ECB's benchmark rate, currently at 2.25%, lower borrowing costs throughout the economy, making it easier to buy things on credit and stimulating economic activity and investment. Higher rates combat inflation, but for the moment that battle appears to have been won. The ECB's rate-setting council meets on Thursday under bank President Christine Lagar