Economy Growth Forecast

Weaker consumption, rising energy prices and supply disruptions linked to Middle East conflict prompt Moody's to trim India's FY27 growth outlook to 6 per cent

ESCAP report cites geopolitical tensions, inflation pressures and weak global demand as key risks, while projecting India's GDP growth at 6.4 per cent in 2026

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran says industry cannot be protected forever, backs reforms for sustained 7% growth, and stresses innovation and exports as key to India's economic future

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said that inflation is largely contained, rainfall and agricultural prospects are supportive, external liabilities remain low, and banks are in good health

The IMF said India continues to anchor global growth, adding that recent economic data has outperformed expectations and could prompt a higher growth projection in its January review

The First Advance Estimates provide the earliest projection of annual economic growth by the statistics ministry and forms the base for key FY27 Budget calculations

With inflation easing, tax revenues rising and major FTAs taking effect, India's economy held firm in 2025 even as US tariffs and global slowdown fears weighed on trade

The ECB now sees inflation at 1.9% in 2026, above its previous projection for 1.7% while 2027 inflation is projected at 1.8%, below the 1.9% seen in September

India's agriculture sector growth is estimated to be lower at 4 per cent in the 2025-26 financial year compared to the rate of 4.6 per cent recorded in the previous fiscal, a senior government official said on Monday. "It (agri growth) will be close to 4 per cent in FY 2025-26. It is difficult to attribute reasons for lower growth at this point of time," Ramesh Chand, member of government think tank Niti Aayog, told PTI on the sidelines of an agri business summit. The agri growth keeps fluctuating as base effect is low. The flood impact in Punjab is only in a limited area, and that is unlikely to bring down the state's growth, he said. "Looking at the first half of FY 2025-26 growth figures for agriculture sector, the second half will be normal," Chand noted. Farm growth was estimated at 3.7 per cent in the first quarter and 3.5 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal year. In 2024-25, overall farm growth reached 4.63 per cent, he added. Chand said India's agricultura

The headline inflation reading for October, at 0.25 per cent, was the lowest in the current series. The MPC has revised the inflation projection for the current year to 2 per cent

The Asian Development Bank lowered India's FY26 growth projection to 6.5% from 6.7%, citing steep US tariffs that could hit exports, manufacturing and investment in key sectors

The 15th FC had recommended a sizeable Rs. 2.9 trillion as revenue deficit grants (RDG) to a select number of states for FY2022-FY2026

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra says global uncertainties were already factored in previous growth forecasts and that RBI will continue to monitor macro conditions before revising projections

August MPC: RBI cuts FY26 inflation forecast to 3.1% on easing food prices, favourable monsoon; growth outlook steady at 6.5%, CRR cut to begin in September

Rating agency Icra on Wednesday retained its India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2025-26 at 6.2 per cent, assuming well-distributed monsoons and crude oil prices averaging around USD 70/barrel. However, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, volatility in financial markets, and uncertain trade policies pose downside risks to this growth outlook, which have intensified, Icra said in its Macro Update June 2025. Reserve Bank has projected the GDP growth at 6.5 per cent. "Economic activity has displayed a mixed trend in the first two months of FY2026, with only nine of the 17 non-agri indicators showing an improvement over Q4 FY2025, even as the output of summer crops is estimated to grow at a healthy pace," the report said. The early onset of monsoons in May 2025 partly weighed upon the performance of the electricity and mining sectors. It also said the prospects for urban consumption remain bright owing to the income tax relief, rate cuts and softening food inflation. However, glob

Nonetheless, higher agricultural output and lower food inflation will allow the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to ease policy

UN WESP report lowers India's growth outlook for 2025 to 6.3 per cent, citing rising trade tensions and policy uncertainty, but notes strength in consumption and investment

The WEO stressed that swift escalation of trade tensions has generated extremely high levels of policy ambiguity, making it more difficult than usual to establish a central global growth outlook

However, the report added that "even these significant easing measures are unlikely to fully offset the negative effects of the tariffs

RBI MPC reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent, marking the second cut this year