GDP Forecast

The POC stressed that excluding precious metals, underlying inflation pressures were muted and that barring volatility on account of gold and silver, core inflation was expected to remain range-bound

From shopping baskets to growth calculations, India is updating the base years for CPI inflation and GDP to reflect today's economy, a recalibration that will change headline numbers without altering

For long-term investors, such investments enhance productivity across sectors like manufacturing, services, logistics, and urban development

Budget's priority seems to be to reinforce India's long term growth narrative while maintain a tight balancing act as far as fiscal discipline is concerned.

Union Budget 2026 stays focused on fiscal prudence, targets a 4.3% deficit, sustains ₹12.2 trillion capex, and backs rare earths, freight corridors, waterways and data centres, writes Madan Sabnavis

Fiscal indiscipline at the state level casts a shadow on sovereign borrowing costs

Economic Survey projections and Budget assumptions on GDP growth have often missed the mark, with actual growth diverging from estimates in several years

Economic Survey 2025-26 signals an adjustment phase ahead, with moderate growth, stable inflation, fiscal consolidation and policy shifts shaping India's macro outlook

The IMF said India continues to anchor global growth, adding that recent economic data has outperformed expectations and could prompt a higher growth projection in its January review

It highlighted AI and possible resolution of trade disputes as upside risks

India's economy remains resilient despite geopolitical headwinds and trade barriers, with real gross domestic product projected to grow 7.4 per cent in FY26, the principal secretary to the PM said

The statistics ministry on Wednesday estimated the economy to grow 7.4 per cent in 2025-26

NSO data shows infrastructure investment gaining momentum in FY26 on strong public capex, while household consumption growth is expected to ease marginally

India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) on Tuesday projected Indian economy to grow at 6.9 per cent in the 2026-27 fiscal year beginning April 1 saying key reforms like GST and income tax cuts, and trade pacts will act as economic catalyst and shield economy from global turbulence. The economy will continue to be in 'Goldilocks' situation of high growth and retail inflation averaging 3.8 per cent in the next fiscal as well, and Indo-US trade deal with reduced tariffs will add to the GDP growth numbers, said Ind-Ra, Chief Economist, Devendra Kumar Pant. For the current fiscal, Ind-Ra projected real GDP growth at 7.4 per cent, while nominal GDP expansion at 9 per cent. Ind-Ra expects the Indian Rupee to average 92.26 to a dollar in FY27, higher than 88.64 to a dollar in the current fiscal. The Union government's debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to come down to 55.5 per cent in FY27, from an estimated 56.3 per cent in the current fiscal. The government estimates to bring down debt

ADB has sharply raised India's FY26 growth forecast to 7.2% on stronger consumption post tax cuts, while inflation estimates have been lowered as prices soften and demand strengthens

Chief Economic Adviser Anantha Nageswaran upgraded his forecast late last month to at least 7 per cent after data showed an expansion of more than 8 per cent in the three months through September

RBI cuts the repo rate to 5.25%, revises FY26 GDP growth to 7.3%, and lowers its inflation forecast to 2%, signalling stronger momentum and easing food-price pressures

Fitch raises India's FY26 growth forecast to 7.4%, citing strong consumer demand and GST-driven sentiment, while expecting slower growth ahead, limited rupee fall and one more RBI rate cut

At the bourses, meanwhile, Nifty India Manufacturing index, which has outperformed the market by surging 26 per cent in the past nine months

Most economists have raised India's FY26 GDP growth forecast to around 7.5% after a strong first half, citing robust Q2 data, improving credit trends and potential support from a US trade deal