GDP Forecast

RBI cuts the repo rate to 5.25%, revises FY26 GDP growth to 7.3%, and lowers its inflation forecast to 2%, signalling stronger momentum and easing food-price pressures

Fitch raises India's FY26 growth forecast to 7.4%, citing strong consumer demand and GST-driven sentiment, while expecting slower growth ahead, limited rupee fall and one more RBI rate cut

At the bourses, meanwhile, Nifty India Manufacturing index, which has outperformed the market by surging 26 per cent in the past nine months

Most economists have raised India's FY26 GDP growth forecast to around 7.5% after a strong first half, citing robust Q2 data, improving credit trends and potential support from a US trade deal

Crisil has raised its forecast for the country's GDP growth to 7 per cent from 6.5 per cent for the current financial year, following the first-half growth of 8 per cent that exceeded expectations. Chief economist of Crisil, Dharmakriti Joshi, said that India's real GDP growth stood at 8.2 per cent in the second quarter, exceeding expectations. However, due to easing inflation, the nominal GDP growth was modest at 8.7 per cent. The first half growth of eight per cent and an expected slowdown to 6.1 per cent in the second half owing to the impact of higher US tariffs, Joshi said. According to Crisil, private consumption was the main driver of higher real GDP growth. From the supply side, growth in manufacturing and services saw a significant rise. Joshi said lower food inflation stoked discretionary spending in the country. Joshi said that the third quarter is expected to continue benefiting from these tailwinds. While government investment will stabilise likely, there could be a .

India's GDP growth saw a six-quarter high of 8.2% in Q2 FY2026, increasing over the 7.8% growth seen in the first quarter of this fiscal

Real GDP for the quarter stood at ₹48.63 trillion, up from ₹44.94 trillion in Q2 FY25

Gross domestic product is expected to have grown 7.3 per cent in July-September from a year earlier, down from 7.8 per cent in the prior quarter

India remains one of the world's fastest-growing major economies in the face of US President Donald Trump raising tariffs on Indian goods to 50 per cent in August

Rating agency ICRA on Tuesday projected GDP growth to moderate in July-September period of FY26 to 7 per cent, from 7.8 per cent in the previous quarter, amid lower government spending. ICRA said while the services and agriculture sectors would lose some momentum in the second quarter, industrial performance would be strong propelled by manufacturing, construction and favourable base effects. This is expected to underpin the quarter's economic activity. The rating agency in a statement said it expects GDP growth to ease to 7 per cent year-on-year in Q2 (July-September) from 7.8 per cent in Q1 (April-June) FY2025-26. Indian economy had expanded 5.6 per cent in the Q2 (July-September) of 2024-25 fiscal. The National Statistics Office (NSO) is slated to release the official data on FY26 Q2 GDP growth estimates on November 28. ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar said a lower YoY rise in government spending is likely to weigh on the pace of the GDP and GVA growth in Q2 FY2026 compared to

Economists see growth above 7% in July-September, backed by consumption revival, robust capex, and steady industrial output; RBI had earlier pegged Q2 GDP at 7%

India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) on Wednesday projected India's GDP to grow at 7.2 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal, with private consumption being the leading growth driver. The Indian economy had expanded 5.6 per cent in the Q2 (July-September) of 2024-25 fiscal. India's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have grown at the fastest pace in five quarters at 7.8 per cent in the April to June period of the current fiscal. The National Statistics Office (NSO) is slated to release the official data on FY26 Q2 GDP growth estimates on November 28. In a statement, Ind-Ra said it expects GDP growth to remain robust at 7.2 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of FY26. "From the demand side, private consumption is a leading growth driver due to steady real income growth both in upper- and lower-income households. The resilient services sector along with the favourable base-led goods exports growth in the manufacturing sector propelled GDP growth .

From a stock market perspective, however, UBS remains underweight on Indian equities as valuations in their view still look expensive relative to the ordinary fundamental performance of companies.

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said the Indian economy has responded quite satisfactorily to global headwinds, and exuded confidence that real GDP growth is likely to touch 7 per cent in FY26. Speaking at the India Maritime Week here, Nageswaran said three global rating agencies have recently upgraded their ratings on India, and if the country continues on the same track, India can "soon" break into the 'A' rating category. The academic-turned-policy advisor said the resilience shown by the economy, coupled with measures by the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), places the Indian economy in a "comfortable position". "We should be quite satisfied with the way the Indian economy has responded to global uncertainties this year, and the tariff-related developments as well," he said. The policy measures, including relief in income tax and the recent GST rationalization "have combined to improve the economic growth prospects for this year to near or

While a punitive 50 per cent tariff levied by the US on Indian goods is still in place, recent comments from Washington and New Delhi have raised optimism it will be reduced

Deloitte India on Thursday projected India's economy to grow 6.7-6.9 per cent in the current fiscal amid buoyant demand and policy reforms. Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal. Deloitte India's 'India Economic Outlook' report forecasts a GDP growth between 6.7 and 6.9 per cent, averaging 6.8 per cent this fiscal year, up by 0.3 percentage points from Deloitte's previous forecast. This performance signals not just resilience but a renewed sense of India emerging stronger than most nations. Similar growth rates are expected in the subsequent year, but the range of variation remains broader due to uncertainties associated with trade and investment. The GDP growth forecast is in lines with the RBI which projected FY26 economic growth at 6.8 per cent. Growth is likely to be supported by buoyant domestic demand, accommodative monetary policy, and structural reforms, such as GST 2.0. Low inflation will contribute to spending as purchasing power ..

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BMI added that the central bank's growth and inflation forecasts for FY26 are too high, pointing to it as one of the main reasons behind the possible cuts

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) stated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for Q1 of 2026-27 is projected at 4.5 per cent

OECD expects global growth to soften in the second half of 2025 as front-loaded activity fades and higher tariffs in the US and China dampen investment and trade