GDP Forecast

High oil prices pose risks but India's strong buffers, resilient exports and policy space can help navigate global uncertainty, says the World Bank

Last year's shutdown of the government was the key driver of the slowdown from the third quarter's 4.4 per cent growth pace

World Bank upgrades India's FY27 growth outlook to 6.6% on strong domestic demand, but flags inflation risks and slowdown due to West Asia conflict

Moody's Ratings has slashed India's economic growth estimates for the current fiscal to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent earlier, saying the ongoing conflict in West Asia will moderate growth momentum and raise inflation risks. In its credit opinion report on India, Moody's said prolonged disruptions, particularly LPG shipments due to the conflict, would lead to near-term household shortages, higher fuel and transport costs, and spillovers to food inflation through India's reliance on imported fertilisers. The region accounts for around 55 per cent of crude oil imports and over 90 per cent of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) supplies to India. "While inflation remains contained for now, geopolitical risks have tilted the inflation outlook to the upside," Moody's said while projecting inflation to average 4.8 per cent in FY27, up from 2.4 per cent in FY26. With inflation risks re-emerging and growth remaining robust, policy rates are likely to be held steady or raised gradually in fiscal .

India's real GDP growth for the next fiscal could erode by around 1 percentage point, while retail inflation could rise by about 1.5 percentage points from their baseline estimates if the Middle East conflict persists through the next fiscal, an EY report said. The EY Economy Watch report said that several sectors, including employment-intensive sectors like textiles, paints, chemicals, fertilizers, cement and tires, could be directly impacted. Any reduction in employment or incomes in these sectors may further dampen aggregate demand. As a result, both supply and demand conditions may be adversely affected by global oil market disturbances. It said the Indian economy, which imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude oil requirements, is also highly dependent on imports of natural gas and fertilizers, and is particularly vulnerable to such external shocks, with the adverse effects likely to cascade across multiple sectors through strong forward and backward linkages with crude oil and .

The ratings agency expects growth to moderate from FY26 levels, supported by consumption and investment, while warning of risks from geopolitical tensions and energy prices

S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal to 7.1 per cent, with private consumption, investment and exports being key drivers, but said that the conflict in the Middle East could strain the fiscal position due to higher energy prices arising from the conflict. In its latest quarterly Asia-Pacific economic commentary, S&P Global Ratings said risks from renewed geopolitical tensions and persistent trade-related uncertainties could affect India through fluctuations in commodity prices, trade volumes, and capital flows. It expects fuel prices in India to rise if oil prices remain elevated, to contain subsidy costs, but does not foresee a full pass-through. "We project real GDP growth to moderate to 7.1 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2027, compared with 7.6 per cent in fiscal 2026. Key drivers are resilient private consumption, a modest recovery in private investment, and solid exports," it said. The 2025-26 growth has been .

The fresh cut in growth estimate by Goldman's analysts follows a change in their assumptions on oil prices and the period of disruption to supplies

Crisil projects India's economy to grow 7.1 per cent in FY27 on consumption and investment, but warns West Asia tensions and trade frictions pose downside risks

Economy expands 7.8% in Q3; manufacturing shines bright

The GDP revision improves measurement, says former chief statistician Pronab Sen, but raises questions on double deflation, consumption surge and fiscal maths

Discrepancies between the expenditure and production sides not completely wiped out

India's Second Advance GDP Estimates for FY26 signal strengthening private consumption, steady government spending and firmer investment momentum, reflecting shifts under the revised GDP series

One way to look at the new series is as a shift from a grainy image to a higher-resolution one. The scene itself does not suddenly change, but the blur is reduced

Overall, the 2022-23 base revision represents a substantive statistical reset

India's GDP grew 7.8% in Q3FY26 under the new series, slightly slower than earlier quarters, while full-year FY26 growth is estimated higher at 7.6% compared to 7.1% in FY25

India will shift GDP base year to FY23 and adopt price deflators and double deflation to improve accuracy, reflect structural shifts, and align national accounts with global standards

India's GDP could grow between 6.8-7.2 per cent in the next fiscal, EY Economy Watch report said on Thursday. It suggested that to attain the Viksit Bharat goal by 2047, India may have to increase its tax-GDP ratio largely by improvement of tax compliance as major tax reforms have already taken place. "In the background of India's extensive bilateral trade agreements with other major economies or economic groups, India's medium-term prospects have brightened up. We estimate India's real GDP growth to be in the range of 6.8-7.2 per cent in FY27," EY India Chief Policy Advisor D K Srivastava said. The EY Economy Watch report said that major tax reforms were undertaken in the current fiscal, in particular relating to personal income tax (PIT) and the GST. Both these reforms involved a considerable amount of revenue forgone aimed at increasing household disposable incomes so that private consumption demand could be supported. "These tax reforms involved considerable sacrifice of GoI's

The 16th Finance Commission opts for continuity over disruption, but its new devolution formula and scrapping of revenue-deficit grants raise key federal equity concerns

The POC stressed that excluding precious metals, underlying inflation pressures were muted and that barring volatility on account of gold and silver, core inflation was expected to remain range-bound