GDP Forecast

India's GDP growth is likely to ease to around 7.2% in Q1 FY27, a four-quarter low, amid softer services activity and a delayed monsoon despite resilient domestic demand

Gupta also sounded confident about India's external accounts, saying it will be 'much more conducive'

India Ratings & Research on Tuesday projected India's GDP growth to slow down to 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal year, as against 7.6 per cent in the previous year, citing risks from fuel and food inflation stemming from West Asia conflict's uncertainty, weak currency, and the likely impact of El Nino on agriculture. The FY27 GDP growth projection at 6.8 per cent is a tad higher than the 6.7 per cent growth Ind-Ra had projected in May. Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had raised growth projections from 6.6 per cent to 6.7 per cent citing resilient domestic economy. The domestic rating agency said it now estimates average crude oil price at USD 85/bbl in FY27 compared to USD 95/bbl in May 2026. It expects rupee-dollar exchange rate to average Rs 93.98 (May 2026: Rs 94.28), a depreciation of 6.4 per cent YoY, in FY27. Fitch Group subsidiary Ind-Ra estimates capital flows of USD 70 billion under foreign currency non-resident (bank) (FCNR B) and external ...

Fed policy preview: The bigger risk for the market lies not in the rate decision itself but in the possibility of a more hawkish tone than markets currently anticipate.

The IMF warns that rising oil prices from West Asia tensions and an El Nino-hit monsoon pose key downside risks to India's 2026-27 economic growth outlook

The public sector lender has raised its FY27 growth forecast by 40 basis points, citing easing oil prices, improving monsoon conditions and resilient economic indicators

The IMF has cut India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.4 per cent, saying higher energy prices outweigh resilient economic activity, while raising its FY28 projection

Brokerage cites easing oil prices after the US-Iran peace deal, raises India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.5% and lowers headline inflation projection to 4.9%

India's economy is expected to grow at 6.6-6.8 per cent in the current fiscal, and a gradual normalisation of global energy markets is expected to ease supply-side pressures, improve cost conditions, and support growth and inflation outcomes during FY27, EY Economy Watch said on Friday. Considering the recent geopolitical developments, if global crude prices settle at relatively lower levels and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz normalise, the positive momentum of India's growth prospects is likely to be restored, the report said. "We expect, in FY27, real GDP growth at 6.6-6.8 per cent, CPI inflation at 4.5 per cent, nominal GDP growth at 12.5 per cent, Government of India fiscal deficit at 4.4 per cent and current account deficit at 1.5 per cent of GDP," EY Economy Watch said. It said India continues to demonstrate strong economic resilience despite external uncertainties, underpinned by robust domestic economic fundamentals and sustained private sector activity. A gradual .

The brokerage raised India's GDP forecast, while cutting its inflation estimate to 4.4% and current account deficit forecast to 1.1% of GDP, on falling crude oil prices after the US-Iran peace deal

A hike in the base rate, along with the tax concessions, would have been a workable proposition given the need to shore up the forex inflows, said Joseph Thomas, head of research, Emkay Wealth

The MPC's approach is data-dependent and cautiously hawkish: it acknowledges weaker growth, flags higher inflationary risks, and keeps policy unchanged for now to watch how the trade-off evolves.

The June monetary policy is a bold statement that addresses the present macro concerns even while striving to keep the resilient growth of the economy intact, says VK Vijayakumar

Keeping rates on hold, the RBI flagged concerns over fuel-led inflation, supply-chain disruptions and a weak monsoon while projecting GDP growth of 6.6 per cent for FY27

RBI MPC June: The policy committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent, and the committee maintained its 'neutral' stance

Emkay Global has raised FY27 Brent crude oil price forecast to $90 per barrel citing West Asia tensions and inventory depletion. It has cut India's GDP growth outlook to 6.3 per cent

The United Nations has revised downward India's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 6.4 per cent from its earlier projection of 6.6 per cent, citing global uncertainties and economic shocks arising from the ongoing West Asia crisis. As per the report released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) on Tuesday, India, however, remains one of the fastest-growing major economies. West Asia crisis has delivered yet another shock to the global economy, slowing growth, reigniting inflationary pressures and heightening uncertainty, it said. Ingo Pitterle, Senior Economist and Officer-in-charge of Global Economic Monitoring Branch, Economic Analysis and Policy Division, UN DESA, said India is "not immune" to current global challenges. "It is a large energy importer and it is also exposed to other channels, for example, remittances, add to some vulnerability. Also, a global financial tightening will make monetary policy more complicated," he added. Pitterle pointed o

Sustained high oil prices, Morgan Stanley cautioned, could trigger non-linear and progressively larger impacts on growth, as the burden on households and firms intensifies over time.

The ministry said the change was necessitated because some "critical datasets become available only after a lag of up to two months"

India's economy is projected to grow at 6.6 per cent in 2026-27 fiscal while a comprehensive package is required on the Balance of Payments (BoP) front amid rupee depreciation and higher oil price, an SBI Research report said on Monday. The report said the rupee, which has weakened much in the recent period "through clouds on external macros, as also unabated speculative forces" needs structural changes on BoP front, stream lining the guard rails of import substitution, export competitiveness, integration in global value chain. The rupee has breached the 95-mark against the US dollar that has strengthened due to rising global uncertainties, triggered by the West Asia conflict. "There is now a felt need to put in place a comprehensive package to address Balance of Payments (BoP)," SBI Research said and made a strong case for diaspora bonds. With the country's macro fundamental getting distorted as Brent crude prices hover above USD 100, and transport and insurance costs spiking, the