GDP Forecast

A hike in the base rate, along with the tax concessions, would have been a workable proposition given the need to shore up the forex inflows, said Joseph Thomas, head of research, Emkay Wealth

The MPC's approach is data-dependent and cautiously hawkish: it acknowledges weaker growth, flags higher inflationary risks, and keeps policy unchanged for now to watch how the trade-off evolves.

The June monetary policy is a bold statement that addresses the present macro concerns even while striving to keep the resilient growth of the economy intact, says VK Vijayakumar

Keeping rates on hold, the RBI flagged concerns over fuel-led inflation, supply-chain disruptions and a weak monsoon while projecting GDP growth of 6.6 per cent for FY27

RBI MPC June: The policy committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent, and the committee maintained its 'neutral' stance

Emkay Global has raised FY27 Brent crude oil price forecast to $90 per barrel citing West Asia tensions and inventory depletion. It has cut India's GDP growth outlook to 6.3 per cent

The United Nations has revised downward India's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 6.4 per cent from its earlier projection of 6.6 per cent, citing global uncertainties and economic shocks arising from the ongoing West Asia crisis. As per the report released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) on Tuesday, India, however, remains one of the fastest-growing major economies. West Asia crisis has delivered yet another shock to the global economy, slowing growth, reigniting inflationary pressures and heightening uncertainty, it said. Ingo Pitterle, Senior Economist and Officer-in-charge of Global Economic Monitoring Branch, Economic Analysis and Policy Division, UN DESA, said India is "not immune" to current global challenges. "It is a large energy importer and it is also exposed to other channels, for example, remittances, add to some vulnerability. Also, a global financial tightening will make monetary policy more complicated," he added. Pitterle pointed o

Sustained high oil prices, Morgan Stanley cautioned, could trigger non-linear and progressively larger impacts on growth, as the burden on households and firms intensifies over time.

The ministry said the change was necessitated because some "critical datasets become available only after a lag of up to two months"

India's economy is projected to grow at 6.6 per cent in 2026-27 fiscal while a comprehensive package is required on the Balance of Payments (BoP) front amid rupee depreciation and higher oil price, an SBI Research report said on Monday. The report said the rupee, which has weakened much in the recent period "through clouds on external macros, as also unabated speculative forces" needs structural changes on BoP front, stream lining the guard rails of import substitution, export competitiveness, integration in global value chain. The rupee has breached the 95-mark against the US dollar that has strengthened due to rising global uncertainties, triggered by the West Asia conflict. "There is now a felt need to put in place a comprehensive package to address Balance of Payments (BoP)," SBI Research said and made a strong case for diaspora bonds. With the country's macro fundamental getting distorted as Brent crude prices hover above USD 100, and transport and insurance costs spiking, the

Weaker consumption, rising energy prices and supply disruptions linked to Middle East conflict prompt Moody's to trim India's FY27 growth outlook to 6 per cent

India's economy is projected to grow at 6.4 per cent this year and 6.6 per cent in 2027, according to a report by the United Nations. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) said in the report released Monday that economies in South and South-West Asia grew by 5.4% in 2025, compared to 5.2% in 2024, driven largely by strong growth in India. India's growth edged up to 7.4% in 2025, "supported by robust consumption, especially from the rural economy along with goods and services tax rate cuts, and export frontloading ahead of the United States' tariffs," the report, titled Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2026, said. It said in India, economic activities moderated in the second half of 2025 as exports to the United States declined by 25 per cent following the introduction of 50 per cent tariffs in August 2025. The services sector remained a key growth driver. The report projected India to register a 6.4 per cent growth rate

IMF advises India to deploy fiscal buffers through targeted support as prolonged West Asia crisis could intensify energy shocks and disrupt growth across Asia

India slipped to sixth in IMF GDP rankings due to rupee depreciation and base revision, even as the economy continued strong growth and is expected to regain position soon

High oil prices pose risks but India's strong buffers, resilient exports and policy space can help navigate global uncertainty, says the World Bank

Last year's shutdown of the government was the key driver of the slowdown from the third quarter's 4.4 per cent growth pace

World Bank upgrades India's FY27 growth outlook to 6.6% on strong domestic demand, but flags inflation risks and slowdown due to West Asia conflict

Moody's Ratings has slashed India's economic growth estimates for the current fiscal to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent earlier, saying the ongoing conflict in West Asia will moderate growth momentum and raise inflation risks. In its credit opinion report on India, Moody's said prolonged disruptions, particularly LPG shipments due to the conflict, would lead to near-term household shortages, higher fuel and transport costs, and spillovers to food inflation through India's reliance on imported fertilisers. The region accounts for around 55 per cent of crude oil imports and over 90 per cent of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) supplies to India. "While inflation remains contained for now, geopolitical risks have tilted the inflation outlook to the upside," Moody's said while projecting inflation to average 4.8 per cent in FY27, up from 2.4 per cent in FY26. With inflation risks re-emerging and growth remaining robust, policy rates are likely to be held steady or raised gradually in fiscal .

India's real GDP growth for the next fiscal could erode by around 1 percentage point, while retail inflation could rise by about 1.5 percentage points from their baseline estimates if the Middle East conflict persists through the next fiscal, an EY report said. The EY Economy Watch report said that several sectors, including employment-intensive sectors like textiles, paints, chemicals, fertilizers, cement and tires, could be directly impacted. Any reduction in employment or incomes in these sectors may further dampen aggregate demand. As a result, both supply and demand conditions may be adversely affected by global oil market disturbances. It said the Indian economy, which imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude oil requirements, is also highly dependent on imports of natural gas and fertilizers, and is particularly vulnerable to such external shocks, with the adverse effects likely to cascade across multiple sectors through strong forward and backward linkages with crude oil and .

The ratings agency expects growth to moderate from FY26 levels, supported by consumption and investment, while warning of risks from geopolitical tensions and energy prices