Page 2 - Gdp Forecast

S&P Global retains India's GDP forecast at 6.5%, revises inflation downward

The report added that low inflation provides room for further monetary policy adjustments, with S&P expecting a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India in FY26

Fitch ups India’s GDP forecast, Centre clears transport projects in Bihar, Nepal unrest & more

Fitch Ratings has raised India’s FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.5%, citing strong domestic demand. The global rating agency said robust real incomes will boost consumption.

Fitch ups India FY26 GDP forecast to 6.9% from 6.5% on domestic demand

Global growth is now forecast to be 2.4 per cent in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points (pp) since June but a sizable slowdown from 2.9 per cent last year and below trend

Govt spending and exports likely to begin unwinding in Q2, says BMI

BMI said any export front-loading that continued post-June has likely been cut short by the rise in US 'reciprocal' tariffs, first to 25 per cent on July 31, 2025, and then to 50 per cent on August 27

Economy spurts 7.8% in Q1 FY26 as manufacturing, agri, services shine

India's GDP grew 7.8% in Q1 FY26, a five-quarter high led by manufacturing and services, though US tariffs pose risks to sustaining growth momentum

US goods trade deficit jumps sharply 22% to $103.6 billion in July

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is currently estimating GDP will increase at a 2.2 per cent rate in the third quarter

India's Q1 FY26 GDP hits five-quarter high at 7.8%, beats RBI forecast

Q1 FY26 GDP: MoSPI data shows GDP growth above RBI's 6.5% estimate; nominal GDP at ₹86.05 trillion, GVA at ₹44.64 trillion

Tariff impact: Nomura cuts FY26 GDP forecast to 5.8% in worst-case scenario

Data from the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) show that these sectors together employed around 21 million workers directly and via contractors in 2023, Nomura said

Statsguru: Deflators likely to offset corporate results' impact on GDP

Deflators may offset corporate results' impact on GDP

India's GDP growth in Q1FY26 likely eased after March-quarter high

Indicators give mixed signals ahead of 50% Trump tariffs

India's GDP growth likely at 6.3% in FY26, below RBI estimates: SBI report

India's economic growth is expected to be lower at 6.3 per cent this fiscal compared to the RBI's projection of 6.5 per cent, a SBI Research Report said on Thursday. The report pegged the first quarter GDP estimate at around 6.8-7 per cent, mainly due to muted private capex. India's economy is likely to grow at 6.3-6.8 per cent in 2025-26 on the back of strong macroeconomic fundamentals, though strategic and prudent policy management will be required to navigate global headwinds, as per the latest Economic Survey. The country witnessed a muted growth at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25 (April 2024 to March 2025), down from 9.2 per cent in the previous year. Sharing the quarterly growth estimates, the report said the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the second quarter and at a lower rate of 6.3 per cent in the next quarter. In the fourth quarter of the current financial year, the GDP growth will be lowest at 6.1 per cent, it added. Compared to the SBI report, the Reser

Icra pegs Q1 GDP growth rate at 6.7% on higher govt capex, exports

The Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.7 per cent in April-June period of current fiscal, higher than 6.5 per cent a year ago, on the back of higher government capex and exports, rating agency Icra said on Tuesday. This projection also outpaces the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) forecast of 6.5 per cent growth in the June quarter. India's economy grew 7.4 per cent in March quarter of FY25. Official data for FY26 Q1 GDP is scheduled to be released on August 29. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said investment activity held up in Q1 FY2026 was boosted by the front-loading of government capex. Although, this admittedly came on a low base amidst the heightened uncertainty owing to geopolitical tensions and tariff-related developments. "Benefitting from robust government capital as well as revenue spending, upfronted exports to some geographies and nascent signals of improved consumption, the pace of expansion in economic activity in Q1 FY2026 is estimated at 6.7 per cen

Trump's tariff hike could shave 0.3 pp off India's GDP: Goldman Sachs

India condemns new 25% duty on exports; total levy now at 50%; analysts expect talks before August 27 deadline

'Lack of data': RBI keeps GDP forecast unchanged despite Trump's 25% tariff

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra says global uncertainties were already factored in previous growth forecasts and that RBI will continue to monitor macro conditions before revising projections

RBI lowers inflation forecast to 3.1% for FY26; growth outlook unchanged

August MPC: RBI cuts FY26 inflation forecast to 3.1% on easing food prices, favourable monsoon; growth outlook steady at 6.5%, CRR cut to begin in September

Deloitte projects India's FY26 growth at 6.4-6.7%, flags global risks

Deloitte India on Tuesday projected India's economic growth at 6.4-6.7 per cent in the current fiscal citing robust domestic fundamentals and expanding global opportunities. It, however, said that India must monitor its trade exposure and be prepared for the outcomes of geopolitical uncertainties Strategic trade negotiations, notably with the UK in May and the ongoing talks with the US, and the highly anticipated deal with the European Union by the end of the year, will likely act as powerful multipliers of income, jobs, market access, and domestic demand. India's economic growth was at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. Deloitte projects 6.4-6.7 per cent growth for FY 202526, driven by resilient domestic demand, easing inflation, and a bold push in domestic policy and global trade diplomacy, it said in a statement. "India's economic trajectory stands out in a turbulent global landscape. Our momentum is driven by a virtuous trifecta, resilient capital markets, a dynamic consumer base and a

US goods trade deficit hits nearly two-year low as imports tumble

Imports of goods decreased $11.5 billion, or 4.2 per cent, to $264.2 billion, the lowest level since March 2024. The decline was led by a 12.4 per cent plunge in consumer goods imports

ADB lowers India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.5%, cites impact of US tariffs

The report said that despite these factors, India's economic activity remains robust, with domestic consumption set to grow strongly on the back of revival of rural demand

S&P ups India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.5% on resilient domestic demand

S&P Global Ratings raises India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.5%, citing normal monsoon, soft oil prices, tax reliefs and monetary easing as key drivers amid global headwinds

Geopolitical tensions not to put much pressure on rupee, inflation: S&P

The ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation as global energy prices are lower than last year, which will limit current account outflows and domestic energy price pressures, S&P Global Ratings said on Tuesday. S&P Global Ratings Economist Vishrut Rana said a key mitigating factor of India is that energy prices are still lower than last year --? Brent crude oil traded at roughly USD 85/barrel a year ago and current prices are still lower. "This will help contain both current account outflows and domestic energy price pressures -- while energy prices may rise moderately, the path of food prices will have a higher impact on inflation. Overall, we do not expect significant pressure on the Indian rupee or inflation," Rana told PTI. Rates of the benchmark Brent crude fell to around USD 69 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a "complete and total ceasefire". Israel and Iran .