Why China's electric trucks are becoming world's biggest diesel disruptor

China's rapid adoption of electric heavy trucks is already denting diesel use and could reset global fuel-demand trajectories faster than analysts expected

While climate diplomacy drags and emissions targets slip out of reach, as was evident in the recently concluded COP30, there is a quiet change happening in China which is poised to cause a far more practical disruption on its roads. A silent wave of electric heavy trucks is moving across the country’s freight network, accelerating so quickly that it is beginning to reshape global diesel demand forecasts, and potentially altering the trajectory of the future of energy demand around the globe.

 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the global sales of medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks more than doubled between 2023 and 2024, with China accounting for more than four-fifths of those sales. In 2024 alone, global sales exceeded 90,000 units, and China took the lion’s share, according to the IEA.

 

Growing numbers of electric trucks in China

 

A few years ago, China’s truck market looked entirely different. In 2020, nearly all new trucks in the country ran on diesel. By the first half of 2025, battery-powered trucks had climbed to 22 per cent of new heavy-truck sales, up from 9.2 per cent in the same period of 2024, according to Commercial Vehicle World, a Beijing-based trucking data provider.

 

Chinese consulting firm Sublime China Information (SCI) put out a report earlier this year, saying sales for new energy trucks in China are estimated to have risen 175 per cent year-on-year to 76,100 in the first half of this year.

 

British research firm BMI expects electric trucks to account for nearly 46 per cent of new sales this year and 60 per cent next year, according to a report by the Associated Press.

 

Freight trucks: Heavy carbon contributors

 

Heavy trucks are central to modern economic activity but are also major carbon emitters. Studies show that in 2024, road freight generated nearly a third of all transport-related carbon emissions.

 

Historically, the sector has been considered hard to decarbonise because electric trucks, weighed down by large batteries, could carry less cargo than diesel-powered vehicles. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) was long seen as a bridge fuel until electric technology matured.

 

But in early 2025, the transition quickened further. Electric and 'new energy' trucks made up roughly a quarter of new registrations in the first half of 2025, a sharp jump from the low single-digit shares of prior years, according to a Reuters report. Several months in 2025 saw electric truck sales surpass LNG truck sales in China.

 

Electrification begins to dent diesel consumption in China

 

IEA data is showing a visible transformation. China accounted for more than 80 per cent of global electric truck sales in 2024, and half-year 2025 data indicate the electric share of new sales is moving into the double digits across many segments. Major domestic manufacturers, including BYD, Sany and FAW, have stepped up production and begun exporting electric truck models, according to the IEA.

 

As a result, the impact on fuel markets has started becoming visible. Diesel consumption in China, the world’s second-largest diesel consumer after the US, fell to 3.9 million barrels a day in June 2024, down 11 per cent year-on-year. The US Energy Information Administration attributed this decline partly to the shift toward LNG and electric trucks.

 

Separately, the US-based environmental think-tank Rhodium Group estimates that China’s electric trucks are already cutting oil demand by the equivalent of more than one million barrels a day.

 

The transport sector, which burns about two-thirds of all diesel in China, will use 40 per cent less by 2030, cutting overall diesel consumption by about a quarter compared to 2024 levels, according to energy consultancy firm Rystad.

 

Meanwhile, SCI forecasted that diesel consumption this year is set to fall by 11.3 million tons, or 6.3 per cent, similar to last year.

 

What's fuelling China’s truck electrification drive?

 

China’s early electric-truck sales were driven in part by generous government incentives. A 2024 scheme offered truck owners up to about $19,000 to replace older diesel models with newer or electric ones. This was accompanied by rapid investment in charging infrastructure.

 

Major logistics hubs in the Yangtze River Delta now have dedicated charging stations along key freight corridors, the Associated Press reported. Beijing and Shanghai have built heavy-duty charging hubs along highways that can recharge trucks within minutes.

 

CATL, the world’s largest maker of EV batteries, launched a battery-swapping system for heavy trucks in May and announced plans for a nationwide network of swap stations covering 150,000 km of China’s 184,000 km expressway system.

 

Why China is electrifying heavy trucks so quickly

 

Several identifiable factors explain why fleets and manufacturers are turning to electric models faster than analysts had expected:

 

• The battery ecosystem: Battery prices have dropped significantly in recent years in China. The IEA and industry data show that the total cost of ownership for electric trucks has moved closer to diesel, particularly on high-utilisation routes where electricity costs and battery-swapping reduce downtime. Chinese automakers have kept costs low by producing most key components, from batteries to motors and electronics, in-house.

 

• Operational fit for key routes: For predictable regional routes, ports and urban distribution networks, electric drivetrains already offer efficiency advantages. Fleet operators are increasingly adopting depot charging, opportunity charging and battery-swap models.

 

What to watch next

 

China is positioning itself to become a major global supplier of electric heavy trucks. A McKinsey & Company report shows that exports of Chinese heavy-duty trucks, including EVs, to the Middle East and North Africa grew about 73 per cent annually between 2021 and 2023. Shipments to Latin America rose 46 per cent in the same period, AP reported.

 

Manufacturers are now preparing for larger overseas pushes. Sany Heavy Industry plans to export electric trucks to Europe starting in 2026. It has already shipped models to the United States, Thailand, India and the United Arab Emirates, the report added. In June this year, BYD broke ground in Hungary on a factory to produce electric trucks and buses, targeting Europe’s requirement to cut emissions from new trucks by 90 per cent by 2040 compared with 2019 levels.