China Economy

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, rose just 0.2 per cent in April, cooling sharply from 1.7 per cent in March and marking the weakest gain since December 2022

The producer price index (PPI) increased 2.8 per cent from a year earlier, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed

Today's Opinion wrap tracks RBI's bank board concerns, India's satellite strides, gaps in economic guidance, China's consumption debate, and a memoir on rural farming journeys

China's economy accelerated in the first quarter of this year, expanding 5% from a year earlier as it largely shrugged off impacts from the Iran war so far, according to data released Thursday. The January-March data released by the government, covering a period during which the Iran war began, was better than what economists expected and was up from the 4.5% growth seen in the October-December quarter. Economists expect China to be able to weather short term impacts from the Iran war, now in its seventh week. The war is pushing energy prices higher, worsening inflation and impacting global economic growth. But longer term, areas including global demand for Chinese exports could take a hit. The International Monetary Fund this week lowered its economic growth forecast for China to a 4.4% expansion for 2026. Chinese leaders last month set an economic growth target of 4.5 per cent to 5% for this year, the slowest since 1991.

China's exports grew 2.5 per cent in March from a year ago, significantly slowing from the previous two months as uncertainties rose from the Iran war and its impact on energy prices and global demand. The March export data released by China's customs agency Tuesday missed analysts' estimates and was sharply down from the 21.8 per cent export growth recorded for January and February. Imports last month surged 27.8 per cent, up from the 19.8 per cent year-on-year increase in the first two months of this year. Technology-related exports including a jump in shipments of semiconductors from China on the global artificial intelligence boom have powered its robust exports in early 2026, but economists say impacts from the prolonged Iran war could affect overall global demand for Chinese exports this year.

China is poised to benefit from the Iran war as global energy disruptions accelerate a shift away from fossil fuels and toward clean technologies and renewable power, industries that China dominates. Most of the oil and gas from the now mostly shut Strait of Hormuz was Asia-bound. Asian nations are scrambling to conserve energy and bolster dwindling reserves. As a temporary ceasefire teeters, gasoline prices in the US and Europe are spiking. While most of Asia is hit hard, China will likely benefit from the fossil fuel disruptions despite being the biggest purchaser of Iranian oil. China leads the world in battery, solar and electric vehicle exports, and its industries are forecast to face a rise in demand for renewable products. Before the start of the Iran war in late February, China's lead in clean technologies was lengthening. The US under President Donald Trump scaled back on renewable energy and leaned on its vast oil and gas resources, promoting energy exports to achieve what

An input-cost shock to the world's largest manufacturing base threatens jobs and wages, with around a quarter of firms already operating at a loss after years of overcapacity and price wars

Long concerned about geopolitical crises, China redoubled efforts to secure energy security when US President Trump started raising the stakes in his first term

The sub-indexes for output and new orders both rose above 51 from below 50 the previous month, while that for new export orders improved to 49.1 from 45 in February

China will focus on promoting high-quality development and continue to create a favourable business environment so that companies coming to China can develop with confidence and achieve great success

Industrial production climbed 6.3% in the January-February period from a year ago, its fastest growth since September and up from 5.2% in December

China's exports rose nearly 22% in the first two months of the year from a year earlier, as its trade with countries other than the United States expanded. The export figures released by China's customs agency on Tuesday were much better than economists had forecast. They far exceeded the 6.6% annual pace of growth recorded in December. Imports in January and February rose almost 20%, up from December's 5.7% year-on-year increase. However, China's imports from the United States dropped nearly 27% from a year earlier. China's exports have been a bright spot for its economy despite tensions with the US. China's exports climbed 5.5% for 2025 as its trade surplus surged to a record of nearly $1.2 trillion. Higher shipments to other regions including Europe and Latin America helped offset a 20% drop in exports to the US as US President Donald Trump imposed a variety of higher tariffs on imports from much of the world. China's global trade surplus in January-February was $213.6 billion.

China's growth model has lasted longer than expected but is now losing momentum, as the government runs out of fiscal space to sustain investment-driven expansion

China has lowered its 2026 growth target to 4.5-5%, the lowest since 1991, as weak domestic demand, property sector troubles and rising global tensions add uncertainty to the nation

The government last week set a goal of 110 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2030 in its latest five-year plan draft, a 76 per cent jump from the end of last year

The latest signals from Beijing's political gathering have reinforced the view that tech self-reliance and industrial upgrading will anchor economic growth in the years to come

Two major economic plans unveiled at the annual meeting of China's legislature outline top priorities that have different ramifications for the global economy. In the government plan for 2026, the No. 1 task is "building a robust domestic market". Then comes accelerating technological progress. But longer-term, a plan for the next five years, gives more prominence to achieving advances in tech. The subtle difference highlights the government's balancing act. Its overarching goal is to transform from a low-cost manufacturing to a tech-driven economy. But a more immediate concern is dealing with a prolonged period of sluggishness that has depressed consumer and business confidence. China is such a large exporter that the choices it makes affect countries and jobs around the world. The plans, presented at the recent opening of the National People's Congress, offer a window into the government's thinking. They are set to be formally endorsed by the rubber-stamp legislature at the end o

Beijing elevated BCIs to a core future strategic industry in its new five-year plan released this week, placing it alongside sectors such as quantum, embodied AI, 6G and nuclear fusion

China has set an economic growth target of 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent for this year, a slight decrease in the face of a prolonged property slump and other headwinds and uncertainty abroad. The target was announced on Thursday in an annual report being presented by Premier Li Qiang at the opening session of this year's meeting of the National People's Congress. The report set the goal and added "while striving for better in practice." The target was lowered from about 5 per cent in each of the last three years. The economy grew 5 per cent last year. Setting a range of 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent gives the government more leeway to adjust policies this year.

The non-manufacturing measure of activity in construction and services increased slightly to 49.5, compared with a forecast of 49.7