 "China's population decline continues for third year in a row: Here's why")
China's population has declined for the third consecutive year, according to the latest government figures. By the end of 2024, the population stood at 1.4 billion, marking a decrease of 1.39 million from the previous year.
This decline is attributed to the ongoing demographic challenges China faces, particularly an ageing population and a shrinking working-age demographic. Notably, these issues are not unique to China, as other East Asian regions, including Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong, have experienced similar declines in birth rates.
Why is the population declining?
Reports indicate that the primary reasons for population decline are consistent across many countries. Rising living costs are prompting young people to delay or forgo marriage and parenthood, with many prioritising their education and careers instead. Although life expectancy is increasing, it is insufficient to counterbalance the effects of declining birth rates.
China’s population history and one-child policy
China has historically been one of the world's most populous nations, maintaining a large population despite enduring invasions, floods, and other natural disasters. Following the end of World War II and the rise of the Communist Party in 1949, the country experienced a rapid population surge. However, concerns arose that population growth would outstrip the country's ability to provide sufficient food, prompting the government to implement the controversial “one-child policy.”
Although the one-child policy was not officially enshrined in law, it was enforced through strict measures. Women were required to obtain permission to have a child, and those who violated the policy faced severe consequences, including forced abortions, mandatory birth control procedures, or hefty fines. The policy also led to social pressures, particularly in rural areas, where a strong preference for male children prevailed.
Sex imbalance and its consequences
Experts highlight that a significant side effect of the one-child policy was a severe imbalance in the sex ratio. Many families, particularly in rural areas, resorted to selective abortion to ensure the birth of male children. Consequently, China now has millions more men than women, with the current ratio standing at 104.34 men for every 100 women. This imbalance has raised concerns about potential social instability, especially among the growing number of unmarried men.
Ageing population and declining workforce
The population decline has been further exacerbated by a rapidly ageing society. In 2023, China's population decreased for the first time in decades, with the country being narrowly surpassed by India as the world's most populous nation. The ageing population, coupled with a shrinking workforce and increasing migration abroad, is placing significant strain on China's economy and social systems.