COP28 summit: Draft climate deal stops short of fossil fuel 'phase-out'

Calls for trebling the global renewable energy capacity by 2030

As the COP28 summit in Dubai enters its final day, the latest draft text issued by its president remains conspicuously silent on the phasing out of fossil fuels. Instead, it calls for a series of ambitious measures, including trebling the global renewable energy capacity and doubling the average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements worldwide by 2030.

The text is drafted under the stewardship of COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber, who concurrently serves as the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the UAE’s state-owned oil behemoth.
 

The United Nations climate summit has been marred by growing divisions over the inclusion of fossil fuel phase-out in the final statement. This demand, backed by a coalition of 100 countries and raised for the first time in over three decades of climate negotiations, has met with resistance from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (Opec+), including host United Arab Emirates, and Russia.

The draft text, published by the UN’s climate body on Monday evening, advocates for “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, so as to achieve net-zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science”. 

However, the text does propose the phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies “that encourage wasteful consumption and do not address energy poverty or just transitions” as soon as possible. This move has been championed by the European Union and the United States.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, speaking on Monday, as reported by global media outlets, emphasised that while recognising the need for a phase-out of fossil fuels is crucial in the fight against climate change, not all countries need to phase out simultaneously.

The draft text represents the first global stocktake under the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aimed to limit the rise in mean global temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. Acknowledging that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have already caused about 1.1°C of global warming, the COP28 draft text commits to efforts to meet the 1.5°C target and expresses grave concern that 2023 is projected to be the warmest year on record.

It reiterates last year’s call for a rapid phase-down of power generation by coal and restrictions on any such new project. It also calls for an acceleration and substantial reduction of non-CO2 emissions, particularly methane, globally by 2030.

The text also pushes for the use of zero and low-carbon fuels, such as biofuels, “well before or by around mid-century”. India has played a pivotal role in rallying support for biofuels on the global stage, pitching the Global Biofuel Alliance, a government initiative, on the sidelines of COP28.

The text also commits to accelerating the adoption of carbon removal technologies, including carbon capture and utilisation and storage, and low-carbon hydrogen production, as substitutes for fossil fuels.

NDCs not enough

The draft text repeatedly calls for an upgrade of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of individual countries, which currently fall short of meeting the Paris Agreement goals. NDCs are non-binding national plans for GHG reductions submitted by each country. The text notes that current NDCs would only reduce emissions by an average of 2 per cent on 2019 levels by 2030. 

It also expresses concern over the latest findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which indicate that policies implemented by the end of 2020 are projected to result in higher global GHG emissions than those implied by the NDCs of individual countries.