European Union raises 2025-26 soft wheat crop forecast to 128.2 mn tonnes

The European Commission on Thursday raised its forecast for usable production of common wheat in the European Union in 2025/26 to 128.2 million metric tons from 126.6 million last month, now 15% above the rain-hit 2024/25 crop. 

Like other forecasters, the Commission made upward revisions for Romania and Spain, where plentiful rainfall in recent months has boosted crop conditions. 

It also increased its projection for production of common wheat, or soft wheat, in France, the EU's biggest supplier. The French crop was now pegged at 32.55 million tons against 32.02 million forecast a month ago, the Commission's supply and demand data showed. 

There is nonetheless uncertainty about the size of the French crop after a hot, dry spell this month, though traders expect yield losses to be limited given that most wheat has completed crucial growth phases. 

The Commission kept unchanged its forecast for EU exports of soft wheat in 2025/26 at 29.8 million tons projected in late May. 

However, it lowered its outlook for EU soft wheat stocks at the end of 2025/26 to 8.3 million tons from 9.0 million a month earlier, as a reduced estimate of stocks carried over from this season outweighed the increased harvest forecast for 2025/26. 

The Commission also raised its monthly forecasts for 2025/26 usable production of barley, by 1 million tons to 53.3 million tons, and maize, by 0.8 million tons to 64.6 million tons. 

In oilseeds, it increased its projection for the 2025/26 rapeseed crop to 18.9 million tons from 18.8 million last month.