Trump tariffs get seal of approval as S&P affirms AA+ credit rating

By Ruth Carson

 

President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs have roiled markets, unnerved trade partners and provoked criticism from leading economists. But there is an upside: The levies will help the US maintain its fiscal health, according to S&P Global Ratings. 

The credit rating company has affirmed its AA+ long-term rating for the US, in part because it thinks tariff revenues will reduce the fiscal hit of a recent tax and spending bill. It kept the outlook for the long-term rating stable.

 

The decision offers a glimmer of good news for Trump, who has pushed back against arguments that his historic program of tariffs will damage the US economy. Although the S&P analysts didn’t contradict that view, they stressed that as Trump embarks on a bold program of tax cuts and spending, tariffs will help soften the blow. 

 

“Amid the rise in effective tariff rates, we expect meaningful tariff revenue to generally offset weaker fiscal outcomes that might otherwise be associated with the recent fiscal legislation, which contains both cuts and increases in tax and spending,” wrote analysts including Lisa Schineller in a note. 

 

S&P’s views matter for investors in the world’s biggest bond market, which has been plagued by persistent questions over the fiscal deficit and debt sustainability. Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped above 5 per cent in May as tariff fears and Trump’s multi-trillion dollar tax bill roiled global markets.

Buy America

Whether tariffs will give the US a meaningful revenue boost is a subject of debate among economists, who point to an apparent contradiction at the heart of Trump’s approach: Tariff revenues rely on trade, but Trump has also attempted to pull production back to the US and encourage consumers to buy American-made products — moves that would undercut future levy receipts.

 

The White House didn’t immediately reply to an out of hours request for comment. 

 

So far, the numbers are strong. Tariff revenue reached a fresh monthly record in July, with customs duties climbing to $28 billion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariff revenues for all of 2025 could be “well in excess of 1 per cent of GDP,” revising his previous estimate of $300 billion. But the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the recently passed budget bill will add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years.

 

US 30-year yields were close to flat around 4.94 per cent in Asia trading Tuesday, while those on benchmark 10-year yields edged higher to 4.34 per cent. That pointed to a muted short-term impact from the S&P report, even if it adds an important voice as traders weigh up the impact of tariffs over the coming months.

 

“These are still small nuances close to the top of the credit ratings hierarchy and it doesn’t signal any material change in the US fiscal health, which is a complex issue,” said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier Ltd. in Singapore.

 

What Bloomberg Strategists Say... 

“The pressures on the Fed to again consider defying rates markets and hold next month just received a (rather modest) boost as S&P Global Ratings delivered a solid report card for the US’s economy and outlook.”

Garfield Reynolds, MLIV Team Leader

 

The US lost its last top rating from the big three credit companies in May, when Moody’s Ratings lowered the country from Aaa to Aa1. It blamed successive administrations and Congress for swelling budget deficits that it said show little sign of abating. Fitch Ratings and S&P had previously downgraded the US from AAA. 

 

S&P said the stable outlook indicates its expectation that while the fiscal deficit won’t meaningfully improve, it also won’t persistently deteriorate over the next several years. The agency expects net general government debt to surpass 100 per cent of GDP over the next three years, but it thinks the general government deficit will average 6 per cent from 2025 to 2028, down from 7.5 per cent last year.

 

The rating affirmation could be a positive for the dollar after Trump’s tax and spending bill cast doubts on the sustainability of US debt, said Fiona Lim, a senior currency strategist at Malayan Banking Bhd. Still, the more lasting driver for the greenback will come from Federal Reserve minutes, as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole on Friday, she said.

 

A gauge of the dollar edged higher during Asia trading hours on Tuesday.  

Bessent says US tariff revenues to rise 'substantially', to be used to pay down debt  US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects a substantial increase in tariff revenues from the $300 billion he forecast earlier this year, and said the money would be used to start paying down the sizeable US federal debt. 

Bessent, speaking in an interview on CNBC, declined to give a specific new revenue forecast, but said he and President Donald Trump were "laser-focused" on paying down the debt. 

"I've been saying that tariff revenue could be $300 billion this year. I'm going to have to revise that up substantially," he said.  - Reuters