US job growth beats expectations in March amid Trump's tariff concerns

The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in March, but President Donald Trump's sweeping import tariffs could test the labor market's resilience in the months ahead amid sagging business confidence and a stock market selloff.

 

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 117,000 rise in February, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls advancing by 135,000 jobs after a previously reported 151,000 rise in February. Estimates ranged from 50,000 to 185,000.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in February. 

The labor market is being underpinned by low layoffs, generating solid wage gains that are helping to sustain the economic expansion. 

But businesses have been hesitant to hire because of an uncertain trade policy. That caution could give way to job cuts after Trump unveiled on Wednesday a 10% minimum tariff on most goods imported into the U.S., unleashing threats of retaliation and rattling global financial markets. 

Economists estimated that Trump's sweeping import duties had boosted the nation's effective tariff rate to the highest level in more than a century. They warned of snarled supply chains and high prices, culminating in layoffs as spending by both households and consumers retrenches. 

Trump's tariffs blitz since returning to the White House has already unnerved businesses, who had cheered his electoral victory in November. The report could offer some short-term relief to financial markets roiled by the import duties. 

Data and sentiment surveys have suggested the economy stalled in the first quarter because of trade policy uncertainty and winter storms. Gross domestic product growth estimates for the first quarter are below a 0.5% annualized rate, with high odds of a contraction. Economists are not ruling out a recession in the next 12 months. 

They expect the effects of the reciprocal tariffs could be evident as soon as with April's employment report. Retail payrolls are most likely to decline as consumers hunker down amid price increases. 

Financial market expect the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates no later than June after pausing its policy easing cycle in January. U.S. central bank officials last month projected two interest rate cuts this year. The Fed's policy rate is currently in the 4.25%-4.50% range.