Indian students rethink the American dream amid visa uncertainty

For students preparing to begin courses this fall, visa delays can create uncertainty around travel, accommodation and other commitments made after securing admission

Demand among Indian students for higher education in the United States is showing signs of weakening as uncertainty over visas, costs and post-study work opportunities grows. Application volumes from India have declined at several US institutions. 

The visa environment has become more uncertain following Washington’s August 26 decision to pause immigrant visa appointments worldwide. India, however, remains the largest source of international students to the US.

 The US is also facing growing competition from other destinations. The United Kingdom, Canada and Australia continue to attract Indian students, while Germany, Ireland, France and New Zealand are increasingly appearing on their shortlists, driven by factors including affordability, English-taught programmes and post-study pathways. 

 Shantanu Rooj, founder and chief executive officer of TeamLease EdTech, expects new Indian student enrolments in the US to decline 10-15 per cent in 2026-27 from the previous year. The decline, he said, is likely to be particularly pronounced among cost-sensitive students and those considering non-STEM programmes, where post-study pathways are less certain.

 As many as 363,019 Indian students were enrolled in the US in 2024-25, up 9.5 per cent from 331,602 a year earlier, according to the Open Doors 2025 report, an annual survey of international student mobility published by the Institute of International Education (IIE). Growth had been far sharper in 2023-24, when enrolments rose 23.3 per cent from 268,923 in 2022-23. “Over the next five years, the Indian student base is unlikely to collapse but may move from rapid expansion to a more selective trajectory — potentially stabilising around 300,000-350,000 students annually, compared with the over 360,000 peak,” Rooj said.

 The weakening outlook is also visible in application data. About 61 per cent of surveyed US institutions reported lower application volumes from India for 2026-27, while new international student enrolments fell 17 per cent in Fall 2025 (late August through mid-December 2025), said Saurabh Arora, founder and chief executive officer of University Living, citing IIE data.

At the undergraduate level, first-year applications from India to US institutions were down 14 per cent year-on-year through March 1, 2026, compared with a 9 per cent decline in international applications overall, Arora said, citing data from Common App, a US college application platform.

 The latest uncertainty follows the US announcement on August 26 that it was pausing immigrant visa appointments globally, even as the measure does not directly apply to F-1 student visas, which are non-immigrant visas. But the environment around student visas has become less predictable, with changes in screening, appointment availability and immigration policy complicating students’ planning.

 For students preparing to begin courses this fall, visa delays can disrupt travel, accommodation and other commitments made after securing admission. American universities have increasingly offered deferrals to students unable to arrive on schedule. An IIE survey found that 72 per cent of responding institutions offered admitted international students the option to defer to Spring 2026 (January to May 2026), while 56 per cent offered deferrals to Fall 2026.

 The uncertainty is also changing how Indian students assess overseas education. Visa certainty, affordability, employability and post-study opportunities are increasingly being weighed alongside university reputation and course quality. “The threshold for choosing the country has become higher. Cost, visa predictability, employability and post-study outcomes are now being evaluated together, and students are more willing to keep multiple countries open until they have greater certainty,” Arora said. Rooj echoed that view, saying students were likely to become more selective. “Students are likely to become more selective about institution quality, STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) relevance, employability outcomes and return on investment. The US will continue to attract high-intent students, but visa predictability, affordability and career pathways will increasingly influence destination choices,” he said.

 Chaitanya Chitta, senior vice-president and regional head of the global higher education network Cintana Education, said Indian students were evaluating outcomes alongside destination. International partnerships, joint and dual degrees and globally benchmarked programmes, he said, could allow Indian varsities to offer greater international exposure without requiring students to rely entirely on physical mobility.

 “The US will remain important, but Indian students are weighing outcomes alongside destination. The UK, Canada and Australia continue to attract interest as students consider programme quality, cost, visa certainty and career outcomes together,” Chitta added.