NDC 3.0 highlights climate action urgency amid geopolitical turmoil

India's updated climate targets signal stronger action amid global uncertainty, though experts say ambition may fall short of the country's clean energy potential

At a time when war in West Asia has disrupted global energy-supply chains and the momentum generated on climate change is weakening, India’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for emission reduction for 2031-35 mark an important step forward, experts say.

 

There have been enhanced targets for emission-intensity reduction, clean energy capacity, and carbon sinks.

 

However, these may fall short of the potential of the country in growing its clean energy.

 

In its NDC 3.0, India targets 47 per cent reduction in emission intensity, expanding non-fossil power capacity to 60 per cent, and a significant increase in carbon sinks up to 4 billion tonnes.

 

“At a time when conflict and energy-security concerns are pulling countries away from their climate commitments, India’s new NDCs send an important signal,” said Arunabha Ghosh, chief executive officer, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).

 

Other climate experts found the new approach pragmatic.

 

“Globally, there is a degree of uncertainty about whether countries will continue to demonstrate strong commitment to decisive climate action — particularly in the light of the stance adopted by the United States (US). India has adopted a holistic approach, keeping in view the need to provide affordable and accessible power to all parts of the country and its population,” said Leena Nandan, former secretary, Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change.

 

The commitments are important because India holds the BRICS chair this year. They raise the expectations of a BRICS-led focus on derisking supply chains through decarbonisation under India’s presidency.

 

India, being at the forefront, has stressed climate-resilient infrastructure, green industrial pathways, and behavioural shifts.

 

However, some experts say that these targets show a cautious move, especially when global efforts are waning with countries like the US and those of the European Union backing off on climate commitments.

 

“India seems to have committed itself in a cautious manner,” said Labanya Jena, director, Climate and Sustainability Initiative.

 

Even with the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), in the recently released “Generation Adequacy Plan”, estimating nearly 70 per cent of electricity capacity to come from non-fossil sources by 2035-36, the NDCs target just 60 per cent.

 

“Taking into account India’s technical and financial capacities and its reliance on imported technologies, the government is likely being cautious about these commitments,” said Jena.

 

India’s markets for power are evolving fast and the pace of adding renewable energy is increasing rapidly.

 

Ghosh said: “If the trajectory is maintained and supply-chain disruption eases, we estimate that India will exceed its target, as it has repeatedly done in the past.”

 

The country has achieved 36 per cent reduction in the emission intensity of gross domestic product between 2005 and 2020, reached 52.57 per cent of non-fossil power capacity, and created a carbon sink of 2.3 billion tonnes.

 

India’s climate targets could be higher, given the country’s potential for transformative clean-energy growth, said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst and cofounder, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

 

“Continuing the current clean energy growth at rates already achieved in 2024-25 would enable India to peak power-sector emissions well before 2030 and significantly slow its growth rates in emitting carbon dioxide.”