Sensex trapped in 1,000-pt range ahead of RBI policy; strategy this week

Weekly Market Outlook: The BSE Sensex may trade in the 80,600 - 82,300 range this week, the BSE benchmark could surge to 83,770 levels in June; suggests technical chart.

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex consolidated in a tight range last week, broadly between 81,000 - 82,000, as bulls and bears fought an intense battle amid the BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE) monthly futures & options expiries.  This week, the market will react to Q4 Gross Domestic Production (GDP) numbers announced on Friday after market hours, and the upcoming Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy outcome on June 06.  According to a Business Standard poll, the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the RBI is expected to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75 per cent this week. READ MORE  Meanwhile, India's GDP in the fourth quarter grew at 7.4 per cent exceeding RBI's expectation of 7.2 per cent growth. However, GDP growth for the financial year ended March 2025, came slightly below RBI's forecast at 6.5 per cent.  India's better-than- expected GDP growth in Q4FY25 is an indicator that growth is rebounding and this can lead to revival of corporate earnings in FY26, said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.  Against this backdrop, here's the weekly technical outlook on the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty 50 index. 

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BSE Sensex

Last close: 81,451  Support: 80,900; 80,750; 80,600; 80,250  Resistance: 81,980; 82,150  Despite the recent consolidation, the BSE Sensex has managed to maintain its overall positive stance. Technical chart shows that the bias is likely to remain favourable as long as the BSE benchmark index remains above 80,250 and 79,170 levels. On the upside, the Sensex needs to quote consistently above the 82,000-mark to gain momentum.  As per the monthly Fibonacci charts, the BSE Sensex can target 83,770 levels on the upside in the month of June. In the week ahead, the Sensex may gyrate in the range of 80,600 - 82,300 levels; with interim support anticipated around 80,900 and 80,750 levels. Whereas, the Sensex may experience resistance around 81,980 and 82,150 levels this week.  ALSO READ |  Bullish Bets: RIL, Dixon, 10 other stocks form 'Golden Cross'; check list 

NSE Nifty

Last close: 24,751  Support: 24,693; 24,080  Resistance: 25,100; 25,550; 25,850  The NSE Nifty 50 index has been consistently finding support around its 20-Day Moving Average (20-DMA) amid the recent consolidation. The 20-DMA stands at 24,693 levels; below which a major support for the Nifty stands around 24,080 levels, wherein the trend line support and the 200-DMA co-exist.  The overall bias for the Nifty is likely to remain favourable as long as it sustains above the key support levels mentioned above. On the upside, the Nifty needs to break and trade consistently above 25,100 levels, to resume a fresh rally.  Chart suggests the Nifty could potentially surge to 25,900 levels from here on, with intermediate hurdles seen placed at 24,550 and 24,850 levels.