 "Sensex, Nifty, market indices, FPI selling, US bond yields, Donald Trump, earnings season, trade policy, Reliance, HDFC Bank, monsoon, equity markets")
Nifty 50 on blade’s edge: Breakout or breakdown?
The Nifty 50 index rose 1 per cent last week, closing at 25,003, but trailed emerging market (EM) peers as the MSCI EM Index climbed over 2 per cent. Trading above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of 24,800, the index has remained in a consolidation range for several weeks. Analysts say a breakout above 25,100 could lift the index to 25,400–25,500, reinforcing its upward trend. A slip below 24,800, however, could sour sentiment, potentially pushing the index to retest 24,500. “The 20-day SMA at 24,800 is a key marker. Holding above it keeps the outlook bullish, but a break below may signal a bearish shift,” said Amol Athawale, vice-president, technical research, Kotak Securities.
Capital market plays catch the updraft
The market rebound from April lows has turned attention to capital market-linked stocks. BSE, Central Depository Services, and DAM Capital Advisors have each jumped over 30 per cent in the past month. “The market recovery is lifting capital market plays. Brokerages, however, face pressure from tighter futures and options regulations. For others in the ecosystem, performance has been strong. The rally is being shaped more by macro trends than company-specific moves. The return of large initial public offerings and the Reserve Bank of India’s recent rate cut of 50 basis points (on June 6) could support domestic growth and keep this theme in play,” said an analyst.
Swiggy’s oven is hot: Can it hold the heat?
Swiggy’s shares rose over 12 per cent last week, the stock’s best weekly performance since December and its fifth consecutive weekly gain. The rally followed Morgan Stanley’s ‘overweight’ call, citing improved execution in food delivery and a narrowing margin gap with rival Zomato. Since May, the stock has gained over 20 per cent, even after the May 13 lock-up expiry on 85 per cent of the company’s equity — worth nearly ₹80,000 crore. These shares, largely held by private equity and venture capital firms, have already doubled in value for some early backers. Market watchers expect some of these investors to pare holdings, which could limit further upside.
