Trump's trade tantrum, and stock market: The ABCD strategy of investing

For Indian retail investors, this is not a moment for fear but a moment for foresight, says Sandeep Walunj of Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Trump’s unpredictable and transactional approach to trade—especially with partners like India—could trigger short-term market volatility. But structural geopolitical trends, such as the potential US-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the India-EU FTA, the China+1 strategy, and evolving BRICS dynamics, are tilting the balance in India’s favour.

 

Even if Trump’s return stirs disruption, Indian investors are better positioned today. Global resistance to US hegemony, rising inflation concerns in the US, and India’s growing strategic autonomy act as counterweights. Navigating this terrain requires smart thinking across three horizons: short, medium, and long-term.

SHORT TERM (0–6 months): Defensive, yet opportunistic

Context:

• Trump’s tariff threats may drive up