The short point of this statistical overload is that it takes very little to turn spectacular victories into historic defeats. Many think the current Congress government in Karnataka is headed in that direction again.
In the 2023 Assembly elections, the Congress won 135 seats on its own. It was a handsome victory. The party only needed 113 to form the government. Siddaramaiah became chief minister amid rumours that he had committed himself to handing over power to then deputy chief minister D K Shivakumar in 30 months. That “agreement” had to be enforced by the high command. M Siddaramaiah stepped down in bad grace, and gave way to Mr Shivakumar, considered both resourceful and efficient. But that reputation has unravelled sooner than expected. Today, the strongest Congress government in Karnataka in 37 years looks to be its weakest.
To be fair, not all of the blame should fall on Mr Shivakumar. When the state-run milk cooperative brand Nandini increased milk prices by ₹8 a litre a few days ago (prices of butter and ghee going up was inevitable), it was only following other milk cooperatives across the country. The chief minister pleaded with the cooperative to reduce the increase in curd prices, which it did. But this might have been a tactical mistake. It suggested he had the power to intervene in pricing but was choosing to limit it to curd.
Objective financial reasons also led to the announcement of a 23-35 per cent increase in state-run bus fares last week. Transport Minister Byrathi Suresh told the Legislative Council in September that the four state-owned road transport corporations (RTCs) had posted an annual loss of ₹8,000 crore because of four consecutive increases in the prices of diesel and other petroleum products by the Centre. But women travel on these buses free as part of the Congress’ 2023 poll promise (the Shakti scheme). So, in popular perception, men have been cross-subsidising the fares of the women all along and at the end of the day, the government is recovering its money via a fare elevation so it’s done no one any favours by enabling women to travel free. In fact, the state government reimburses the state transport corporations for the losses incurred by the Shakti scheme. That the state transport corporations are inefficient and corrupt is another story. But in politics, explaining niceties isn’t always easy.
When you add to that the outcome of a sting operation on Siddaramaiah, the current chief minister’s stock falls further. A Congress activist, Kripa Alva, claimed to have a clip showing Siddaramaiah engaged in crimes against minors. The chief minister ordered an enquiry and Ms Alva was expelled from the party but not before Opposition leader H D Kumaraswamy, also a Union minister, alleged that the video clip was released at the behest of the chief minister, whose reputation as the “King of Stings” has spread far and wide. Mr Kumaraswamy’s message is: The Congress is at war with itself. There seems to be no counteroffensive from the state unit of the party. On the contrary, state party chief, B K Hariprasad, has said he is doubtful how fair the enquiry will be since political leaders are involved.
All this is telling on Mr Shivakumar’s famed management skills. The Congress lost all four seats in the recent Legislative Council polls. It isn’t that he doesn’t have efficient colleagues. The minister for Greater Bengaluru Development, Krishna Byre Gowda, is both hardworking and result-oriented. Health Minister U T Khader is known for his calmness and delivery though he became a minister only in June. As minister for industries and infrastructure development, M B Patil is the man behind investment in Karnataka. But political and resource management is ultimately Mr Shivakumar’s responsibility.
The only consolation for the party is that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be in a lethargic slump. State chief B Y Vijayendra’s term ends on November 10, and despite the party’s performance in the Council elections, his detractors in the party believe he might be between jobs. There seems to be little effort to hit the streets: The BJP’s wars against the government are being fought on social media.
It might be time for Mr Shivakumar to stop, take a deep breath and re-centre himself and his government. Assembly elections are due in the summer of 2028. If he has to pull a rabbit out of a hat, the time is now.
 "DK Shivakumar, Shivakumar")