Is a recession still on the cards?

Amidst the surprisingly strong market performance, investors are questioning the possibility of a recession in the US, but history suggests caution is still warranted

Given how well risk assets have done in the first half of 2023 globally and the continued strength in the US economy and job market, many investors are questioning the idea that we will see a recession in the US towards the end of 2023, or the beginning of 2024. The common refrain is that price action and market behaviour do not seem to show any signs of trouble ahead. Most of the Wall Street banks have also now revised down their probability of a recession, and the idea of a soft landing seems to be the new accepted wisdom