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Tamed prices, tight leash: The hidden cost of India's inflation win

To judge how well FIT has worked, we must first ask how inflation was lowered

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India’s inflation targeting has delivered lower inflation — but largely for the wrong reason. Rather than anchoring expectations, it has relied on high real rates, imposing larger growth costs.

Prasanna Tantri

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The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to seek public comments on its inflation-targeting framework is welcome. Consultation is healthy — but before making changes to the framework, we should first ask: How well has the regime worked?
 
The RBI’s discussion paper (August 2025) declares flexible inflation targeting (FIT) a success. It notes that average inflation fell from 6.8 per cent pre-targeting to 4.9 per cent afterwards, with the pandemic and Russia-Ukraine shocks pushing it up temporarily. Overall, the RBI concludes that FIT has served India well.
 
To judge how well FIT
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