Bihar voters have spoken, the new government must now keep its promises

The verdict on the Bihar Assembly elections can be interpreted in different ways, but a few things are undisputed. The over two-thirds majority for the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) propelled the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to become the single-largest party in the state legislature for the first time, seen as a significant step in its march towards the east. Further, with a thumping victory in Bihar after winning Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi, the BJP and the NDA have certainly overcome the setback of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in terms of public perception. In the Lok Sabha elections, the NDA had won fewer seats than anticipated and the BJP, for the first time since 2014, had fallen short of the majority mark on its own. A clear verdict and the political security of the ruling party or alliance help ensure a stable government that can focus on governance. Now that voters in Bihar — the poorest state in the country — have expressed their preference unambiguously, the incoming government has to get down to work from day one. 

As things stand, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is expected to lead the government again and, having been mostly at the helm since 2005, is well aware of where the state stands. Although Bihar has seen significant improvement in respect of many development parameters over the past two decades, albeit on a low base, it needs much higher levels of investment to grow at a consistently faster rate and catch up with the rest of the country. Over one-third of the population is still multidimensionally poor. In terms of the government’s ability to spend on development, some of the promises made by the ruling alliance, such as an increase in power subsidy, a higher social security pension, the financial outgo on the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, and interventions in the agriculture sector, will only complicate matters. 

The state’s own revenues in total revenue receipts are expected to be only about 22.8 per cent this financial year. While the state is aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit in 2025-26 to 3 per cent of gross state domestic product (GSDP), implementing poll promises can upset these calculations. The debt stock is also high at about 37 per cent of GSDP. A recent study by PRS Legislative Research showed that while the compound annual growth rate in interest payments between 2016-17 and 2024-25 was 12 per cent, revenue grew just 10 per cent. Although there are several states in this category, it is worth noting that higher debt can increasingly constrain the state’s capacity to focus on development. 

Given the kind of electoral verdict the ruling alliance has got, Bihar will likely be followed more closely by analysts. However, two broader developments need more attention. First, it is well accepted that Mr Kumar has focused on women’s empowerment ever since he came to power in the state in 2005. This was also reflected in a much higher women voter turnout. Several other states have also taken various steps to empower women and, in most cases, this has richly rewarded the ruling party. State governments must now focus on building on these measures to improve broader socioeconomic outcomes, like increasing women’s labour force participation, or improving overall health and well-being. Second, the last-minute welfare measures, as was also seen in Bihar, must be widely debated. It is hard to argue that the disbursement of ₹10,000 under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana to eligible women alone secured the NDA’s return, but such schemes and their timing certainly give the incumbent an advantage, and possibly disturb the level playing field.