Brace for impact: US-Israeli attack threatens global stability

The combat operations launched by the United States (US) and Israel on Iran have added multiple ominous imponderables to stability in West Asia. The ostensible cause, according to US President Donald Trump, was to end an “unending campaign of bloodshed” that threatened the US. Starting just two days after US-Iran talks over Tehran’s nuclear programme ended inconclusively, the justification does not appear credible. The US is over 10,000 km away, out of the striking distance of Iran’s arsenal of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Second, the US claimed to have “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme by bombing its three facilities in an operation called “Operation Midnight Hammer” in June last year, which raises questions about the need for another round of attacks. 

Nor have immediate political objectives been met. The attempt to decapitate the regime by assassinating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has not caused Tehran to capitulate. Instead, the regime has retaliated by firing drones and ballistic missiles at Israel and Arab neighbours that host US bases, such as Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. The cycle of debilitating military strikes is unlikely to guarantee a quick victory without committing boots on the ground, a situation that has historically not favoured the US. Nuclear-armed Israel’s constant quest for unquestioned superiority in the region may also rebound on it. The surprise attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, underlined the capabilities of weakened and dissatisfied enemies to wage prolonged asymmetric warfare. The near annihilation of Gaza and the destruction of Hamas’ top leadership with overwhelming force, in line with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s objectives, has not brought peace and security for Israelis. Instead, there are credible signs that the Iran-sponsored group is reorganising itself. The threat of Iran activating sleeper cells around the world (including in the US) for retaliatory action cannot be ruled out. For the Arab states, which have condemned Iranian strikes on their countries, prolonged warfare threatens the entire economic model supporting the region’s prosperity. Their ability to attract global capital and financial flows has long been predicated on the promise of political stability delivered by authoritarian regimes. 

As Iran moves to close the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fourth of global oil shipments, and the world braces itself for a spike in oil prices, the wider geopolitical implications of Operation Epic Fury and Operation Lion’s Roar are yet to play out. No European ally participated in the attacks, although several have called for Iran to show restraint. Alarm bells are sounding in Moscow, a defence ally, and China, a major buyer of Iranian oil. For India, which sources almost 40 per cent of its oil from West Asia and has nine million citizens in the region, the US-Israel attack has complicated both the economic assumptions of the recent Budget and geopolitical equations in the region. Occurring less than two days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel, marked by a significant upgrade of the partnership, the optics and timing appear unfortunate. The need for the belligerents to return to the negotiating table, as New Delhi has urged, has never been more urgent.