Monsoon shift: Agriculture must adjust to changing weather patterns

The southwest monsoon has started withdrawing a little earlier than usual this year after recording about 7 per cent excess rain. However, forecasts point to more rain ahead, with La Nina conditions expected by October and a colder winter likely to follow. The shift in the weather brings both promise and some concern for Indian agriculture. On the positive side, a good monsoon has left reservoirs brimming and soil moisture high, which should help Kharif crops and support Rabi sowing. Further, farmers in Rajasthan and parts of North India welcome the cold weather, which helps crops like wheat, barley, and mustard. A good crop of wheat, pulses, and mustard would not only strengthen food security but also keep prices in check. Higher output could also help push up exports, offering farmers better incomes while maintaining domestic price stability.

 

But the risks are equally real. Rain at a wrong time, particularly during harvest, can damage standing crops, reduce quality, and spoil perishables such as fruit and vegetables. India has seen in past years how sudden downpours at harvest push up prices, triggering food inflation with ripple effects across the economy. A second challenge lies in cold waves: While an early chill is useful, prolonged or extreme cold during flowering and grain development can hurt yields. Farmers in Gujarat’s Kutch region, for instance, are reportedly concerned about frost damage. A third threat is that if La Nina strengthens and the rains linger, delayed withdrawal may waterlog fields and affect output. For perishables, in particular, continuous wet weather can be damaging. These uncertainties matter because food constitutes a large chunk of the household-consumption basket and is critical for overall inflation and policy management.

 

Solutions must therefore be timely and layered. First, services that farmers need must be strengthened. Reliable and frequent weather advisories, for example, can help in adjusting sowing and harvesting decisions quickly. Crop-insurance schemes should be more actively pushed, especially in vulnerable regions, to cover losses from unseasonal rain or frost. Second, the government must closely monitor food prices, with a special focus on perishables, where quick action through transport support, cold storage, and local buffer stocking can prevent shortages. Third, water management is vital: Reservoirs filled by the monsoon should be wisely used to support irrigation if the rains fade later, while drainage channels must be maintained in flood-prone zones to protect crops from excess moisture. Given the prospects of a good harvest in both the Kharif and Rabi seasons, the government should support export, which will help boost farm incomes.

 

On a broader policy level, the larger lesson is clear: Weather variability is no longer an exception but a new normal. Early withdrawal, late rain, and sudden cold waves — all demand a system that is more proactive than reactive. Investment in weather forecasting, climate-resilient seed varieties, and decentralised food storage is critical to ensure stability for both farmers and consumers. For now, the outlook is broadly hopeful. With careful management, India can turn a good monsoon, healthy reservoirs, and a colder winter into higher farm output, stable prices, and farm prosperity.