To put things in context, the low spectrum demand is unlikely to adversely impact the exchequer. The government had set an estimated target of Rs 1.2 trillion of non-tax revenue collection from telecom services in FY25 during the Interim Budget. While there was no official target for the spectrum auction, indications are that the government had modest expectations from the airwaves sale, at around Rs 500 crore of the proceeds as the first instalment in FY25. At the current mopup value of Rs 11,000 crore, the first instalment would exceed the expectations.
On its part, the telecom industry, which has gone through multiple ups and downs over the years, has shown maturity in selecting the bands and frequencies carefully to fill in their needs. In fact, a large chunk of the spectrum bought this time is for renewing airwaves, the permit for which is about to expire. Compared to Bharti Airtel and Vodafone, the old timers, the relatively new player Reliance Jio has bid much less because it’s not facing any spectrum expiry. When compared with the heady 3G spectrum auction round back in 2010, when bidding lasted 34 days, the latest two-day event demonstrates a balanced approach on the part of companies. This also comes soon after the record bidding for 5G airwaves in 2022, prompting telcos to take a breather before exhausting their gunpowder on spectrum purchase.
The government must be complimented for providing the industry an impetus to go shopping for spectrum at their own convenience and timeline rather than rushing to hoard without any visibility on the future road map. The government has contributed to the ease of business in telecom by making annual spectrum auction a stated goal. Also, companies have the option of paying the government in annual tranches for spectrum. That should bring down the financial stress of the telecom industry, which is stuck with a debt of Rs 6.4 trillion as of last year.
Now that Reliance Jio has taken the first step, others too are likely to go ahead with a much required tariff hike to ensure the market does not fall into a duopoly trap. Also, the quality of telecom services must improve, the number of 5G use cases should go up, and the speed of download should match the consumer expectations.